Global Data Pod
Global Data Pod Weekender: Cautiously constructive

Global Data Pod Weekender: Cautiously constructive

December 3, 2021

Featured in today's podcast are Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton as they discuss activity data point to fading bottlenecks, waning inflation pressures, and improving growth—concentrated in the goods sector. At the same time, rising COVID cases across Europe and the US, and the potential threat of Omicron, pose a risk to the outlook and a challenge for central banks. For now, positive signs on data and a tightening labor market seem to be pushing the Fed to taper faster and hike earlier.

This podcast was recorded on December 3, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod Greater China: Greater China 2022 Macro and Local Market Strategy Outlook

Global Data Pod Greater China: Greater China 2022 Macro and Local Market Strategy Outlook

December 3, 2021

Featured in this podcast is Haibin Zhu, Grace Ng, Arthur Luk and Tiffany Wang. The Greater China economics and strategy team present 2022 economic outlook and its implications for strategy recommendations.

This podcast was recorded on December 3, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3934736-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3939324-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Korea: Korea Year-Ahead 2022

Global Data Pod Korea: Korea Year-Ahead 2022

December 2, 2021

Featured in this podcast is Seok Gil Park, Sin Beng Ong, Arindam Sandilya and Arthur Luk. The Korea chief economist and the strategy team present 2022 economic outlook and its implications for strategy recommendations.

This podcast was recorded on December 2, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod ASEAN: ASEAN 2022 Outlook - Navigating intra-regional and cyclical desynchronization

Global Data Pod ASEAN: ASEAN 2022 Outlook - Navigating intra-regional and cyclical desynchronization

December 2, 2021

Featured in this podcast is Sin Beng Ong, Raisah Rasid, Seok Gil Park, Jin Tik Ngai, Arthur Luk and Abbas Keshvani. In this podcast, we explore some of the key themes for the ASEAN 2022 outlook; concluding with implications for the FX and rates markets.

This podcast was recorded on December 2, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod EM Asia: EM Asia 2022 Outlook - Navigating intra-regional and cyclical desynchronization

Global Data Pod EM Asia: EM Asia 2022 Outlook - Navigating intra-regional and cyclical desynchronization

December 2, 2021

Featured in this podcast is Sin Beng Ong, Haibin Zhu, Sajjid Chinoy, Arindam Sandilya, Arthur Luk, Abbas Keshvani and Tiffany Wang. In this podcast, we explore some of the key themes for the EM Asia 2022 outlook; with a focus on developments in China and India, concluding with implications for the FX and rates markets.

This podcast was recorded on Dec 1, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The global economic outlook and the Omicron threat

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The global economic outlook and the Omicron threat

November 29, 2021

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Jahangir Aziz, and Malcolm Barr to discuss our recently published “2022 Global Economic Outlook: This Time IS Different” amid growing concern around the Omicron variant. Omicron emerges with an already significant rise in global cases and points to a winter wave of infections which is likely to exceed last quarter’s Delta wave. The drag on growth from this wave may prove material but we maintain two views critical to the outlook. The first is that the drag is transitory as greater rate of infection is not accompanied by a significant deterioration in the effectiveness of vaccines in limiting hospitalizations and deaths. The second is that the wave is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere where we anticipate US and Euro area growth to slow towards a 2%ar in 1Q22.

If we are right, Asia will be less affected as we turn into the new year and provide a growth boost – from rising demand and moderating supply constraints -- that allows the global economy to sustain above-potential performance in 1H22. This dynamic is consistent with our medium-term view that an underlying reflationary tilt is underway which should eliminate global slack next year and see core inflation settle roughly 0.5%-pts above pre-pandemic levels.

This podcast was recorded on November 29, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3930876-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Growth is picking up and rotating away from Europe

Global Data Pod Weekender: Growth is picking up and rotating away from Europe

November 19, 2021

This week’s news supports our view that Asia – alongside the US consumer – will lead an acceleration in global growth this quarter. However, we have lowered our Euro area GDP growth forecast this week as a new wave of infections is rising across Europe – a development which raises concern for the entire North Hemisphere as we move towards winter. On the policy front new fiscal stimulus is coming in Japan while we now expect two Fed hikes in 2022.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on November 19, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Introducing the J.P. Morgan policy rate forecast revision index

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Introducing the J.P. Morgan policy rate forecast revision index

November 18, 2021

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Dan Weitzenfeld to discuss the release of the J.P. Morgan Policy Rate Forecast Revision Index (FRIP). The FRIs draw on J.P. Morgan’s long history of forecasting macroeconomic variables for 30 countries to generate a simple index for tracking week-to-week revisions. The policy rate FRI adds to a suite of FRIs already being produced for GDP, inflation, and core inflation. We highlight what the FRIP tells us about the accuracy and efficiency (within and across countries) of J.P. Morgan policy rate forecasts and its implication for our recent forecast revision for the US FOMC to hike twice next year.

 

This podcast was recorded on November 18, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3926221-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekend: Up, up, and away

Global Data Pod Weekend: Up, up, and away

November 12, 2021

Inflation once again surprised to the upside globally this week, with big jumps in the US, LatAm, and much of the CEE, due in part to accelerating energy and services prices. This hit to purchasing power has notably weakened sentiment, particularly in the US. Global auto production also has been beaten down, but some easing of bottleneck pressures should contribute to a strong IP bounce this quarter, starting with next week’s October prints for the US and China.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Japan: Japanese economy at crossroads and weak yen

Global Data Pod Japan: Japanese economy at crossroads and weak yen

November 11, 2021

Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai and Tohru Sasaki. With the current continuation of depreciation, the Japanese yen has fallen to its historical low on a real basis. Amid the sharp rise in energy prices, markets are concerned that yen depreciation may harm Japan’s economy. However, we argue that, although the trade structure has changed, yen depreciation still stimulates Japan’s economy, and those concerns may be largely because it is likely to hit the weakest part of the economy during the pandemic. Next, we discuss the structural background behind the fact that the yen has not returned to appreciation, and various scenarios of the yen’s future. If the Japanese economy realizes an improvement in productivity growth and economic growth, thereby increasing income growth, the yen would stop depreciating at least on a real basis. However, if that does not happen, the currently poor state of the economy could continue or worsen, and the yen could continue to depreciate, both on a nominal and real basis.

This podcast was recorded on Nov 11, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3913011-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3915343-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.