Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the main takeaways from the October CPI reports and what to expect from here. A fall in consumer energy prices brought some relief to DM consumers last month. However, after a sharp downshift in core inflation last quarter––from 4.7%ar in 2Q23 to 3.3%ar in 3Q23—global core inflation remained firm in October and the 3-month annualized rate has stabilized above 3%. This hints at stickiness in underlying inflation as a result of still firm services inflation which stands in stark contrast to the sharp slide in core goods inflation.

 

This podcast was recorded on 28 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4571422-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod: UK economy and markets outlook after the Autumn Statement

Ravi Balakrishnan, Allan Monks, Francis Diamond discuss their thoughts on the recent Autumn Statement in the UK. They talk through its economic impact, what it reveals about the fiscal and broader policy landscape in the UK, and the implications for markets

 

This podcast was recorded on November 27, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568777-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4564625-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568901-0

 

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Global Data Pod Weekender: Giving thanks

We approach the end of the year thankful for a resilient global expansion that has weathered the storm of numerous adverse shocks and rapid policy tightening. But we also know that, while some may be looking to the coming months with tunes of “I’m dreaming of a soft-landing” in mind, the pressures continue to build. We end the year with less conviction than when we started but lean in the direction of an earlier end to the expansion.  

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Juuust right? Not quite.

Softer-than-expected inflation along with resilient consumer spending in the US has reignited the Goldilocks bid. However, a closer look shows sufficient reason to be cautious and recognize that the inflation threat is not eliminated. At the same time, a China that keeps producing more than it demands will remain a global disinflationary force.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Not giving up on better Euro area growth

Greg Fuzesi joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent underpeformance in European growth and why we could see an improvement from here. Euro area growth has been stagnating over the past year and is running well below its estimated potential. One key factor behind this weakness is a striking turn towards caution on the part of European consumers evident in a household saving rate that has risen well above its pre-pandemic levels and stalling consumer spending.

Our view that the Euro area avoids a recession––we look for a 0.5% GDP gain this quarter and 0.6% in 2024­­––is predicated on an improvement in consumer spending in response to falling inflation, continued real income gains, and healthy balance sheets. However, the risk is that this year’s excessive consumer caution leads to a pullback in hiring.  While the manufacturing sector has likely done better than often claimed, it is hard to ignore the weakness in the latest PMIs, which we still believe are a reliable indicator of the underlying growth trend in the Euro area. As a result, risks are on the downside but the case for a consumer-led improvement remains in place.

 

This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4548204-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524205-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524584-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Slow-Mo still got Mojo?

The deceleration seen in the data of late raises questions. The latest US payrolls report points to a deceleration in hours, the October global PMI shows a step down in growth, and Western Europe is flirting with recession. Is this a loss of momentum to below potential growth in line with our forecast, or a more pernicious sign of something about to break? We believe the former.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – October Jobs Report Recap

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the October jobs report.

This podcast was recorded on 03 Nov 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Jumping to conclusions

A week of softer-than-expected data leads some to see earlier recession and others to see Goldilocks. We temper fearful conclusions from a “soft” US payroll report but see more concern in the retreat in the October business surveys. Nevertheless, we maintain our call for near-term resilience. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Hold and seek

US real GDP boomed last quarter but the more meaningful signal was in the strong nominal income gains that will support growth into year-end. This contrasts with a disappointing flash October PMI reading from Europe, underscoring our call for weakness to continue. While we see the odds of a Dec hike as higher than current pricing, we expect next week’s Fed to deliver a hawkish hold to see more data. The BoJ is expected to edge closer to removing YCC bands in favor of a more flexible approach to JGB interventions (though not next week).

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: How much have financial conditions tightened

Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent tightening in financial conditions through the prism of the Fed staff’s new FCI-G index. 

 

This podcast was recorded on October 25, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4536724-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.