Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod EM Edge: Snakes and ladders

Speakers
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research 

Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research

 

EM Edge economies have seen improvements in their fundamentals with only limited exceptions. We have also seen better growth and fiscal consolidation in primary balances, mainly in Africa. IMF programs have helped along the way with both reforms and funding. Despite these trends and against a more favorable global backdrop relative to 2022 and 2023, rating changes have been mixed. Katherine Marney, Steven Palacio and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent rating trends across the all regions.

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 10 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4778639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

Weekender: Risky business

The latest PMIs reinforce the resilience of the global expansion, even if still imbalanced across sectors. While the US has led with the strongest recovery, the more material moderation in the labor markets of late shifts the risk skew onto growth over inflation. This points to at least 100bp of Fed cuts by year-end with a start of 50bp later this month. Elsewhere, the cutting cycle has already begun as inflation looks on path to return to target and we look for another 25bp cut from the ECB next week.

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton

Michael Hanson

This podcast was recorded on 6 September 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – August Jobs Report Recap

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.

 

This podcast was recorded on September 6, 2024. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and  monetary policy. Global inflation remains sticky at 3% with a 0.3% monthly core CPI gain in July. But a regional rotation is under way in which a greater easing in labor cost pressures and goods price declines are producing a pronounced slide in US core inflation. While US core CPI inflation eased to just 1.6%ar in the three months to July, Euro area core HICP rose at a 3.5%ar and EM core inflation (ex China, Turkiye and Russia)  reaccelerated close to 4%.  

This podcast was recorded on Aug 22, 2024.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast

Recession risks faded a bit this week as a stronger US consumer and a dip in initial claims combined with a constructive CPI report that gives a green light to Fed easing. At the same time, global sectoral and geographic imbalances abound, as a strong US contrasts with a loss of momentum in Europe and a weak China. A weak manufacturing sector everywhere also keeps downside risks elevated. Next week’s flash PMIs in the DM will be keenly watched for rotational improvements.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 16 August 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: China’s economic challenges and policy dilemma

Haibin Zhu joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s economic and policy outlook amid mounting downside risks to growth. Following the latest set of disappointing activity data we lowered our full-year 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%––below the government’s target of 5%––and continue to see a further slowdown to 4% in 2025. When activity has faltered in the past authorities tended to increase policy support to keep GDP growth close to the target range. This is becoming increasingly challenging, progressively requiring more policy stimulus to generate the same growth impact. Deflationary pressures have become entrenched amid lopsided policy support that has favored production over consumption, while the time inconsistency of China’s housing strategy has prolonged the most severe downturn in three decades.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4770915-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4747455-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4748628-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: The US is still exceptional

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how it has been a volatile week in financial markets, with tension between what we assess to be a modest rise in downside growth risks and a more significant shift in the near-term prospects for Fed easing. Importantly, the Fed is set to ease partly on the back of strong supply-performance reducing labor market pressures, a development not evident in other major economies.

This podcast was recorded on 08/09/2924.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: What a faster Fed easing means for EM Asia

Sajjid Chinoy and Seok Gil Park join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the implications of a more front-loaded Fed easing path for EM Asia. Soft core inflation in EM Asia ordinarily would call for a reversal of some of the monetary policy tightening of the last few years. Yet policy has been constrained in several cases by low interest-rate differentials versus the US and concerns over financial stability. Against this backdrop, a Fed that cuts more rapidly to neutral opens up much-needed space for EM Asian central banks to respond more fully to domestic growth-inflation dynamics. The scale of the response is likely to be bifurcated across the region. We see greater scope for additional cuts in India, Indonesia, and China. The case is less compelling in Taiwan and Korea because the output gap has closed in the former and  domestic financial stability considerations are weighing on easing in the latter.

 

This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4763678-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4766359-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: A bad start to the second half

The week started and ended soft. On Monday, the global manufacturing PMI tumbled in July, erasing this year’s gain and pointing to a stall in global industry. On Friday, the July US payroll report added fuel to the concern that the US was slipping into recession. While there is reason to temper the latest news and the fundamental supports for growth remain strong, we see recession risks jumping to near 50%. Whether US weakness, should it appear, can decouple from the rest of the world is an open question.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 2 August 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – July Jobs Report Recap

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the July jobs report.

 

Speakers:

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 8.2.24.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.