Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – January Jobs Report Recap

Speakers: 

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

 

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January jobs report.

 

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Hot and cold

The growth picture is mixed but on balance shows the expansion ending last year on solid footing. Robust US GDP growth along with a welcome move up in the January flash DM PMIs supports our call for trend-like growth last quarter and this quarter. Global inflation is sliding but core remains elevated around 3%ar. For the Fed next week, at-target inflation calls for an early start to rate cuts but strong growth suggests no need to rush.

This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the December CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and  monetary policy. 

This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod EM Edge: On the sidelines despite easier conditions

Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. Optimism around a soft landing persist, which would be constructive overall for frontier markets. Disinflation along with easing global financial conditions and a weaker dollar should enable frontier central banks to breathe easier. Moreover, frontiers might benefit from easier access to external funding. Yet, interestingly, at this stage, key aspects of the story regarding inflation and monetary policy, or external funding for frontiers have not changed. Many EM frontiers are still sitting on the sidelines tackling their own challenges, despite easier conditions. 

 

Speakers
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4605248-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4598912-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4594568-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Shipping disruptions reignite supply chain woes

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the recent shipping disruptions along the Suez and Panama Canals and the implications for global supply chains and inflation. We estimate the recent surge in container shipping costs––if they persist––could add 0.7%-pts to global core goods CPI (0.3%-pt to core). Most of that inflationary impulse is not likely to be felt until late 1Q or early 2Q, however, given lagged pass-through. If sustained, there could also be a hit to global industry on the downside, reinforcing our concerns that global industry is starting the year off weak.  While nowhere near a COVID-era shock, even a modest rebound in goods inflation could render global core CPI inflation sticky around the 3% mark, especially if services inflation stays stuck above central bank targets as we project.

This podcast was recorded on January 23, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4596665-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Caution warrants patience

A strong consumer supports another solid quarterly gain in US GDP, but China imbalances are a concern and global industry continues to struggle. Central banks are acknowledging progress on disinflation but push back against 1H24 rate cuts. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Progress and patience

This week’s main release – the US December CPI – aligns with our forecast that core inflation is stabilizing around a 3%ar as we turn into the new year. But the Fed’s target inflation indicator – core PCE – is running close to a 2%ar, fueling optimism about early easing. We continue to see the Fed remaining on hold through March and expect it to signal both progress and patience at the January FOMC meeting.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 12 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Don’t let the sound of your own wheels drive you crazy

As we turn into 2024, the global economy continues to display resilience as well as sustained divergence in performance across sectors and markets. While optimism runs high that DM core inflation has slipped well below 3% and opens the door for early easing, we do not look for the coming months to send a clear signal to central banks. With goods price deflation set to fade, it will take time before a rebalancing of labor markets and normalization in service price inflation will be established.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – December Jobs Report Recap

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the December jobs report.

This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the November CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the near-term outlook for inflation and central banks. 

 

This podcast was recorded on December 21, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4586495-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.