Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday Dec 15, 2023
Friday Dec 15, 2023
An eventful week for data points to ongoing divergences: Sectorally (mfg weakness against resilient services) and geographically (US strength against EMU weakness). A similarly eventful week for central banks opens a another divide: While the Fed goes all-in on a soft-landing with a positive supply story and sees faster easing, the ECB turns pessimistic on European supply conditions and thus remains hawkish. The Weekender will return 5 January 2024. Until then, have a happy holiday.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Dec 08, 2023
Friday Dec 08, 2023
There are numerous paths to lower rates, each with different macro outcomes. Next week’s meetings are expected to deliver a Fed still showcasing a soft-landing but underscoring its hawkish bias in the face of resilient growth, and an ECB and BoE that maintain-but-tone-down their hawkish bias given growth concerns and easing inflation pressures.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 8 December 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Dec 08, 2023
Friday Dec 08, 2023
Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the November jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Wednesday Dec 06, 2023
Wednesday Dec 06, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi and Katie Marney discuss EM’s macro resilience that has been evident in both growth and capital flows holding up well despite this year’s tightening in US financial conditions. Major emerging market economies are on track to grow 3.1% this year (ex China)–close to trend and easily surpassing our forecasts from this time last year. This striking resilience reflects solid macro fundamentals and balance sheets in addition to responsible fiscal and monetary management which should continue to hold in the coming quarters. As other macro risks will remain contained, our forecasts show that a clear path from resilience to strength exists for EM capital flows next year. The dollar and the Fed will guide the direction for EM investment flows and both point to a softening in financial conditions. If the data do not give the Fed sufficient comfort to ease without a recession, then EM could be tested, but such an episode could prove less disruptive than in the past.
This podcast was recorded on December 6, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4573542-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553723-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553504-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4566733-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Tuesday Dec 05, 2023
Tuesday Dec 05, 2023
Speakers:
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies, including the 2024 economic outlook. Growth is forecast to improve in about half of the EM Edge economies, mainly due to countries recovering from past crisis and shocks. Growth will improve despite tighter fiscal policy and higher interest rates. Inflation is forecast to fall that opens space for monetary easing, outside of Africa where FX depreciation, high inflation and financing strains are putting pressure on policymakers to maintain high rates. Strong official sector support mitigates risks to growth and funding risks for many frontiers. Against this backdrop, the external context will be important in guiding the outlook for frontiers next year.
This podcast was recorded on Dec. 5, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4569627-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4573288-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Tuesday Dec 05, 2023
Tuesday Dec 05, 2023
Ravi Balakrishnan, Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Greg Fuzesi, Morten Lund, and Allan Monks discuss their thoughts on the outlook for Western Europe. They talk through different scenarios for growth and inflation and the implications for central bank policy rate paths.
This podcast was recorded on 05 December 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at:
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4572258-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4551333-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4564625-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4570066-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Dec 01, 2023
Friday Dec 01, 2023
Somewhat better news on both growth and inflation reduces the extreme tail risks of either a near-term break into recession or a rebound in inflation that requires further rate hikes. However, the mass of the likelihood distribution remains around our bottom-up soft-landing call and our top-down global view that sticky inflation requires high-for-long rates that in turn eventually drive a recession sometime over the next 4-6 quarters.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 1 December 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Tuesday Nov 28, 2023
Tuesday Nov 28, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the main takeaways from the October CPI reports and what to expect from here. A fall in consumer energy prices brought some relief to DM consumers last month. However, after a sharp downshift in core inflation last quarter––from 4.7%ar in 2Q23 to 3.3%ar in 3Q23—global core inflation remained firm in October and the 3-month annualized rate has stabilized above 3%. This hints at stickiness in underlying inflation as a result of still firm services inflation which stands in stark contrast to the sharp slide in core goods inflation.
This podcast was recorded on 28 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4571422-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Monday Nov 27, 2023
Monday Nov 27, 2023
Ravi Balakrishnan, Allan Monks, Francis Diamond discuss their thoughts on the recent Autumn Statement in the UK. They talk through its economic impact, what it reveals about the fiscal and broader policy landscape in the UK, and the implications for markets
This podcast was recorded on November 27, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568777-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4564625-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568901-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Friday Nov 24, 2023
Friday Nov 24, 2023
We approach the end of the year thankful for a resilient global expansion that has weathered the storm of numerous adverse shocks and rapid policy tightening. But we also know that, while some may be looking to the coming months with tunes of “I’m dreaming of a soft-landing” in mind, the pressures continue to build. We end the year with less conviction than when we started but lean in the direction of an earlier end to the expansion.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.