Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday Nov 17, 2023
Friday Nov 17, 2023
Softer-than-expected inflation along with resilient consumer spending in the US has reignited the Goldilocks bid. However, a closer look shows sufficient reason to be cautious and recognize that the inflation threat is not eliminated. At the same time, a China that keeps producing more than it demands will remain a global disinflationary force.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Nov 15, 2023
Wednesday Nov 15, 2023
Greg Fuzesi joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent underpeformance in European growth and why we could see an improvement from here. Euro area growth has been stagnating over the past year and is running well below its estimated potential. One key factor behind this weakness is a striking turn towards caution on the part of European consumers evident in a household saving rate that has risen well above its pre-pandemic levels and stalling consumer spending.
Our view that the Euro area avoids a recession––we look for a 0.5% GDP gain this quarter and 0.6% in 2024––is predicated on an improvement in consumer spending in response to falling inflation, continued real income gains, and healthy balance sheets. However, the risk is that this year’s excessive consumer caution leads to a pullback in hiring. While the manufacturing sector has likely done better than often claimed, it is hard to ignore the weakness in the latest PMIs, which we still believe are a reliable indicator of the underlying growth trend in the Euro area. As a result, risks are on the downside but the case for a consumer-led improvement remains in place.
This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4548204-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524205-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524584-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Nov 10, 2023
Friday Nov 10, 2023
The deceleration seen in the data of late raises questions. The latest US payrolls report points to a deceleration in hours, the October global PMI shows a step down in growth, and Western Europe is flirting with recession. Is this a loss of momentum to below potential growth in line with our forecast, or a more pernicious sign of something about to break? We believe the former.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Nov 03, 2023
Friday Nov 03, 2023
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the October jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on 03 Nov 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Nov 03, 2023
Friday Nov 03, 2023
A week of softer-than-expected data leads some to see earlier recession and others to see Goldilocks. We temper fearful conclusions from a “soft” US payroll report but see more concern in the retreat in the October business surveys. Nevertheless, we maintain our call for near-term resilience.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Oct 27, 2023
Friday Oct 27, 2023
US real GDP boomed last quarter but the more meaningful signal was in the strong nominal income gains that will support growth into year-end. This contrasts with a disappointing flash October PMI reading from Europe, underscoring our call for weakness to continue. While we see the odds of a Dec hike as higher than current pricing, we expect next week’s Fed to deliver a hawkish hold to see more data. The BoJ is expected to edge closer to removing YCC bands in favor of a more flexible approach to JGB interventions (though not next week).
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Oct 25, 2023
Wednesday Oct 25, 2023
Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent tightening in financial conditions through the prism of the Fed staff’s new FCI-G index.
This podcast was recorded on October 25, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4536724-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Oct 24, 2023
Tuesday Oct 24, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi and Dan Silver discuss the main takeaways from the September CPI reports, the outlook for coming months and how we see central banks responding to the incoming data. The latest reports suggest core inflation may be stabilizing amidst significant sectoral and regional divergence. On net, we’ve marked higher our 4Q23 global core inflation forecast to 3.2%q/q annualized (ex China and Türkiye) from 2.8% a month ago; this implies only limited easing from the 3Q pace. In the US, the details of the September report prompted an upward revision to US core inflation which we now expect to rebound to 3.6%ar this quarter from 2.8% in 3Q. While we continue to see the Fed on hold, we think the latest CPI report reinforces the idea that the FOMC will continue to communicate a tightening bias.
This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4540941-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4533084-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Oct 20, 2023
Friday Oct 20, 2023
The dynamic of resilient but divergent growth against a worrying backdrop of rising bond yields kicked into overdrive this week. The US and China both reported better-than-expected data that show a much stronger 3Q GDP outturn with solid September momentum into the current quarter. At the same time, the UST 10yr yield surged yet again lifting borrowing costs. Likely to skip November, the Fed has time to data-watch but strong growth and rising inflation skew risks to more tightening.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Oct 17, 2023
Tuesday Oct 17, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by CE-3 chief economist Jose Cerveira to discuss inflation developments in EM and the scope for central banks to cut rates in a more challenging global environment of higher US rates and a stronger dollar. Core inflation has fallen sharply, in some cases even faster than expected, bringing run rates close to central bank targets. But the disinflation trend appears overly reliant on core goods and the risk is that weaker EM currencies will now push inflation higher again, particularly in the countries where labor markets remain tight and/or fiscal policies turn more expansionary. Thus, while there is still space for EM central banks––especially those with high real rates and ample FX buffers ––to cut rates, it is only natural that they will be more cautious.
This podcast was recorded on October 17, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4482187-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4526698-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522745-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4534175-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.