Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday Oct 13, 2023
Friday Oct 13, 2023
The latest developments are a reminder that the return to normal still has a ways to go. In the US, core inflation bounced back in September—boosted by some of the stickier components. More broadly, the resilience in both inflation and growth is reinforcing the high-for-long stances of central banks even as financial and geopolitical shocks loom over the outlook.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday Oct 12, 2023
Thursday Oct 12, 2023
Michael Hanson, Dan Silver, and Murat Tasci discuss the health of the US consumer. Recent benchmark GDP revisions imply more excess saving while liquid asset holdings and net worth have surged since the pandemic began. These should cushion US households against recent headwinds, and support our call for a continued, if soft, expansion next year.
Speakers:
Michael Hanson
Daniel Silver
Murat Tasci
This podcast was recorded on 12 October 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4528206-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Oct 06, 2023
Friday Oct 06, 2023
Amid plenty to worry about of late, we appreciate this week’s data showing a resilient global expansion. From our global PMI’s pointing to trend-like growth, to improvements in manufacturing bellwethers Asia and the US, to a robust payroll report in the US that comes with positive news on labor supply, the message is clearly positive. The risks from a weak Europe, rising bond yields, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not ignored, however.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Oct 06, 2023
Friday Oct 06, 2023
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This podcast was recorded on October 6, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Sep 29, 2023
Friday Sep 29, 2023
The jump in long-rates poses a risk of something breaking in the near-term and curtailing the expansion in the medium-term. Against a backdrop of strong US growth and resilient—though struggling—growth elsewhere, the central bank challenge to it balance these two forces while assuring inflation cools.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Sep 26, 2023
Tuesday Sep 26, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the August CPI reports and the inflation outlook for the coming quarter.
This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520743-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Sep 22, 2023
Friday Sep 22, 2023
Amid a set of near-term headwinds from the oil shock, UAW strike, possible government shutdown the restart of student loan repayments, we maintain the US expansion continues. We have less conviction in Europe, were we now see GDP growth stalling amid a different set of headwinds. Making sense of this tension and how it resolves is important to the outlook. It is also a challenge faced by central banks trying to return inflation to target without generating a recession.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday Sep 21, 2023
Thursday Sep 21, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi, Joseph Lupton and Natasha Kaneva discuss the rise in oil prices since mid-year and its implications for global growth, inflation and monetary policy.
Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic and Policy Research
Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 21 Sept 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4516358-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4510542-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Sep 15, 2023
Friday Sep 15, 2023
A week of better than expected data from the US and China support our view that the goods sector is lifting. The latest jump in the price of oil is a concern, however. Next week’s flash Sep PMIs are important to watch. The ECB delivered a dovish hike this week rather than the hawkish hold we see for the Fed next week.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Sep 08, 2023
Friday Sep 08, 2023
We maintain the global expansion has legs. While the latest (and upcoming) activity data show somewhat more moderation than anticipated, this comes after stronger readings. At the same time, inflation is cooling. Combined, the case is set for central banks to stay on hold and assess the outlook.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.