Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: A feel-good Fed week

This week’s US reports provide a number of comforting signals to the Fed, putting any doubt about a September pause to rest. The signal on demand was strong and we raised our 3Q23 GDP forecast to a 3.5%ar gain. But there was positive signals on labor supply, productivity and signs that excess demand for labor is moderating. The signal from this week’s PCE price report was also constructive, although it also highlights the difficulty in accurately assessing underlying inflation trends.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Daniel Silver

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – August Jobs Report Recap

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.

 

This podcast was recorded on 01 Sept 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views. Core goods disinflation gathered steam in July on the back of manufacturing sector weakness, fading supply chain bottlenecks and excess China supply. Services inflation remains stickier and generally still above CB comfort zones. In the Euro area, we look for another relatively firm 0.36%m/m sa core HICP gain but now see the ECB on hold in September. With the Fed on hold, a number of EM CBs are set to keep easing in response to significant cooling in core inflation. 

Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research

Greg Fuzesi, European Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on August 24, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4497466-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4459110-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4493240-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4494945-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod Research Rap: China deflation and its global spillover

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by China economists Grace Ng and Tingting Ge to discuss our recently published research note examining China’s deflation and its spillover to the rest of the world. China’s lockdowns and re-opening played a significant role in pandemic supply-chain dynamics that are responsible for much of the current slide in global core goods inflation. China’s policy supports have boosted supply more than demand resulting in domestic production running ahead of domestic demand; this imbalance has driven deflation in both domestic and export prices. The slide in China export prices, alongside CNY weakness, is evident in material declines in trading partner import prices. This unexpected development is a potent force aiding near-term global core goods disinflation which we expect to slide towards its pre-pandemic norm in coming months. Unless China’s policy mix changes to support demand more powerfully, there remain downside risks on near term growth and inflation.

 

This podcast was recorded on August 22, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4459110-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483333-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4468395-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

 

Global Data Pod Weekender: Too hot and too cold

Incoming news supports our forecast for global growth resilience but the widening divide between US strength and China weakness generates risks that financial market stress might emerge. At the same time, the compression in profits which we think will eventually undermine corporate health is moving more slowly than anticipated increasing hopes for a soft-landing scenario.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Asia’s evolving tech cycle

Sin Beng Ong and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for Asia’s tech-sector. Following the sharp deceleration in tech-related output since 2Q22, a lift in production is evident, led by Korea and now Taiwan. With rising global demand for semiconductors driven increasingly by sector-specific and idiosyncratic forces, the tech cycle could become less synchronized with the broader industrial cycle. Over time, it could thus loose some of its bellwether properties for the global manufacturing sector. Beyond the near-term lift, rising tensions between the US and China also bear watching. Some of this shift is already evident in the decline in tech exports from Korea and Taiwan to China but also evident in the material reduction in the share of Asia ex. Japan in global semiconductor shipments for the first time since 1986. Given recent industrial policies in both the US and Europe, this shift could continue to proceed rapidly.

 

This podcast was recorded on August 17, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454969-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4476425-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

 

Global Data Pod Weekender: All the right moves

Recent weeks have trimmed downside growth risks and upside inflation risks. This constructive alignment of data leads us to entertain the Goldilocks scenario. Next week’s growth data should help support the growth part of the story. But there is enough inflation still out there to question whether we settle above central bank comfort zones.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod: Research Rap: A house divided can stand if built on a US foundation

In this episode of the Global Data Pod: Research Rap, Joe Lupton and Bruce Kasman discuss a recently released research note assessing the global spillover effects from this year’s positive (US) and negative (Euro area and China) growth shocks.

We quantify the historical impact of regional shocks filtered through the lens of GDP, our nowcasters (NRI), and our Forecast Revision Indexes (FRI). The results confirm that GDP shocks emanating from Europe and China have less of an impact on the global economy overall than those from the US. This owes in part to the powerful spillover of US to global financial conditions. As financial conditions are currently reinforcing the message that US shocks dominate, we expect the recently upward revised and more resilient US economy to set the tone for the global economy even as Western Europe and China are expected to continue to deliver sub-par growth.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 8 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483519-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: LatAm easing cycles: how low can you go?

Latin America economists Cassiana Fernandez, Gabriel Lozano and Diego Pereira join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the region’s easing cycles that kicked off with bolder-than-expected rate cuts. While risks of more front-loaded easing, especially in Brazil, have risen, there are important divergence across the region. Mexico’s business cycle and policy response vis-à-vis other major LatAm countries in particular remains striking and overheating concerns point to renewed risks of a later start of the easing cycle. In all, despite significant disinflation and rate cuts priced in by markets, we see LatAm’s monetary policy stances remaining restrictive through next year. Much will depend on the sustainability of the disinflation process, fiscal policy responses to the economic slowdown as well as global developments.

This podcast was recorded on 8 August 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4480901-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483381-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4452217-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462810-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483346-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Controlled descent

The July data releases reinforce our conviction that the global expansion has more life. The global all-industry PMI remains at a level consistent with trend-like growth while the US payroll report shows ongoing solid job gains. The momentum loss in both, however, is a reminder that growth paths are rarely smooth. Even if the near-term threats are fading, resilience in growth along with tight labor markets and inflation above central bank comfort zones keeps an observational equivalence between our “Boil the Frog” and “Goldilocks” scenarios.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.