Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday Aug 04, 2023
Friday Aug 04, 2023
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Aug 02, 2023
Wednesday Aug 02, 2023
Mike Hanson is joined by EM economists Sajjid Chinoy, Vinicius Moreira and Katherine Marney to discuss the rising probability of a strong El Niño, which could push up global inflation, especially through food this year and into the next. The inflationary effect could be amplified through rising commodity prices. While El Niño thinks globally, its effects tend to be quite localized, with the most pronounced impacts in Latin America and parts of Asia. But the impacts have varied by episode, and the starting points for crops and energy look good this cycle.
Speakers:
Michael Hanson
Katherine Marney
Vinicius Moreira
Sajjid Chinoy
This podcast was recorded on August 2, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461348-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4469697-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4463428-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for i,,mportant disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 28, 2023
Friday Jul 28, 2023
A week of data that trims both downside risks on growth and upside risks on inflation are giving a bid to Goldilocks. As we noted in recent weeks, don’t fight the cyclical sweet spot we are entering. While Europe is the weak link, the US stands out this week with strong 2Q GDP and solid consumer spending in June. The Fed and ECB hike but turn data dependent, while the BoJ loosened its YCC.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Jul 25, 2023
Tuesday Jul 25, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views. In this month’s edition we highlight our recent research on the likely impact from El Niño and our forecast for US core inflation to prove sticky around 3%.
Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research
Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2023
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4469084-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461348-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4454302-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 21, 2023
Friday Jul 21, 2023
There is much to debate about whether global expansion will come to an end around the turn of the year, later next year, or even later (Goldilocks). Regardless, the near-term picture is looking more resilient and if so, a turn back up in the goods sector should help offset some moderation in service sector. Next week’s flash July PMIs will be key to watch, as will be the guidance coming out of the Fed, ECB, and BoJ.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Jul 18, 2023
Tuesday Jul 18, 2023
The "Debatable" series provides a window on the discussions taking place within J.P. Morgan economic research on key issues in the outlook. Here Malcolm Barr moderates as Bruce Kasman argues the case for inflation to remain problematically elevated relative to central bank targets, while Joe Lupton and Nora Szentivanyi argue that the recent inflation is surge is transitory and the policy actions already taken will push inflation back into central banks' comfort zones.
This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 14, 2023
Friday Jul 14, 2023
June reports suggest that core inflation is now moving lower and risks to our forecast – that core inflation decelerates from a 5%ar in 1H23 to a 3.7%ar this quarter – are shifting to the downside. Much of the near-term downward pressure is coming from core goods inflation. The delayed unwind of supply chain price pressure appears to have taken hold and is combining with the disinflationary impulse associated with manufacturing sector weakness and falling China export prices.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Nora Szentivanyi
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 07, 2023
Friday Jul 07, 2023
The service sector remains a growth engine at midyear, despite clear signs that normalization lift is beginning to fade. With manufacturing survey still pointing to weakness, this engine will need to continue to be the primary source of global growth this quarter.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 07, 2023
Friday Jul 07, 2023
Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Economic Research
Samantha Azzarello, Global Research
This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday Jul 06, 2023
Thursday Jul 06, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi and Joseph Lupton take stock of the rise in household (and overall private sector) debt service ratios in the wake of the sharp rise in interest rates since 2021-22 and discuss what to expect from here. While the projected increases in DSRs this year look manageable on the whole, there is significant variation across countries: the most interest rate-sensitive are seeing a faster pass-through; differences in leverage and the size of rate hikes also matter. Whereas many in DM have yet to see a significant rise in DSRs, the bulk of EM’s rise is likely behind us as EM central banks started hiking earlier and are already shifting towards rate cuts even as DM remains in tightening mode.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research
Joseph Lupton, Global Economic Research
This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4444911-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4446781-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.