Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: If it ain’t broke, don’t doubt it

While our modal views on the global outlook are not changing much, risks of imminent recession are fading and the likelihood of an intra-cycle lift should not be ignored. The goods sector is most primed for a bounce in this case, but the fate of the medium-term outlook will rest more on service sector normalization and the broader sensitivities to past policy tightening.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: May 2023

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views.

This podcast was recorded on June 28, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4447959-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Are we the frog?

Our midyear outlook published this week maintains that a recession is not imminent but will take time to manifest as rates rise further. However, the data out this week from the ugly flash June PMIs across the developed markets to another high US claims reading raises the risk that, rather than a distinct break, the expansion is grinding into a recession more gradually but sooner than expected.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Can Mexico capitalize on its “near-shoring” advantage?

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Gabriel Lozano to discuss how Mexico is benefitting from the reshuffling of global trade and investment, primarily outside of China, and how much further this trend could run.

While Mexico has caught up with China in terms of its US import share, domestic factors including institutional hurdles, low productivity and competitiveness will likely limit the reach and depth of “near-shoring” despite Mexico’s cost and location advantages.

 

This podcast was recorded on June 21, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4281790-0 

 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Pardon the interruption

Central banks are signaling a resolve to continue raising policy rates and a “boil the frog” scenario is becoming increasingly likely. In this regard,  the Fed delivered a pause but guided towards two further rate hikes, pointing to a hike in July as a reasonable possibility. The ECB was even stronger in guidance towards a further hike next month and the Bank of England will likely hike and signal more to come next week.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Big week for G3 central banks

While rate decisions look relatively well signaled at next week’s G3 meetings, forward guidance is in flux. The Fed’s pause will be hawkish and likely accompanied by a rise in the dots to show an additional hike this year. The ECB is likely to eschew strong guidance, keeping uncertainty high about where they will pause. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC band but signal that the start of rate normalization is not near.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Vulnerabilities to higher interest rates in EM Edge

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Nicolaie Alexandru and Katherine Marney to discuss vulnerabilities of the EM Edge economies to higher interest rates, slower growth and lower oil prices.

Amid higher global interest rates, several EM Edge economies have lost market access and have turned to multilateral funding. Tighter funding is coming against the backdrop of wide fiscal deficits, larger debt stocks and lower reserves stocks. Declining oil prices also offer mixed benefits to the EM Edge group as global growth moderates. Against this backdrop, efforts to improve debt sustainability have become even more pressing.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research

Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Katherine Marney, EM, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on June 8, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4426761-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428035-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4420830-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – May Global PMI Report Recap

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton, Senior Global Economist

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy

 

This podcast was recorded on June 5, 2023.  

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4429734-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428335-0,  and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4405286-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: A reversal of fortune

From downside risks in the US and upside risks in Europe and China just a few months ago, we now are seeing fading tail risks in the US (banks stress and debt ceiling) and improving data pointing to upside risks while recent data have taken out the upside in Europe and China. Although we still see the Fed pausing this month, the bias to hike will remain.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Americas: Data Drop – May Jobs Report Recap

Speakers:

Michael Feroli

Samantha Azzarello

This podcast was recorded on date.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.