Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: China’s confidence game

Although zero-COVID and its removal have been dominant drivers of China growth over the past year, the outlook hinges on a recovery in business sentiment which has been depressed by a housing correction and a set of government policies which had generated private sector uncertainty. We expect those drags to gradually fade, and the recovery in business spending from depressed levels should be an important source of China growth. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Jahangir Aziz 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Global Inflation Monitor

With the full set of April CPI releases to hand, Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi

Michael Hanson 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: EM’s tightrope of fiscal trade-offs

Nora Szentivanyi, Sajjid Chinoy and Sonja Keller discuss EM’s debt dynamics and why boosting GDP growth is so crucial to achieving post-pandemic debt sustainability. While some of the pandemic surge in EM debt ratios has been pared back in last two years, reducing them further will be much more challenging in an environment of slowing nominal GDP growth and rising interest rates. 

 

This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at  

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395071-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4326109-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4402859-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4263350-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod Weekender: Let’s pause

We downgrade our current quarter forecast for China and recognize the looming risks associated with extending the US debt ceiling. But the overall message from the global economy is one of still solid growth amidst early signs that a weak manufacturing sector is poised to recover. The Fed and other central banks are inclined to pause but we would resist describing these moves as the end of the tightening cycle.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: April, come she will

This week’s news of tightening US bank lending standards and a sharp rise in unemployment insurance claims fuels worries about an impending recession. However, beneath the surface, there are reasons to fade the downsides somewhat. More importantly, April activity data are shaping up for a solid bounce after softness late last quarter—echoing the global survey data and US payrolls report already in hand. While we still see recession taking hold eventually, we also maintain our call that its not going to come in the next few months.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Tighter credit but resilient growth

Nora Szentivanyi, Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson discuss the tightening in US, Euro area and EM credit conditions through the lens of the latest bank lending surveys, the implications for the growth outlook and central bank decisions. While these surveys show that that credit conditions did tighten further last quarter and loan demand continued to fall, the moves were not as severe as some might have feared. Indeed, against a backdrop of continued resilience in recent activity data, the latest surveys do not indicate an imminent break in growth. Rather, we expect this drag to accumulate over the year, contributing to a mild year-end recession in the US in our base case.

 

Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research

Greg Fuzesi, Economic and Policy Research

Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research

 

This podcast was recorded on 10 May 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4409223-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4408145-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4402074-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: The Fed’s dilemma

The Fed moved towards a pause this week as it sees clouds on the horizon related to bank stress and the debt ceiling deadline. But the data continues to emphasize that the battle to lower is far from done.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Feroli

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – April Jobs Report Recap

Speakers

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

This podcast was recorded on May 5, 2023.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April payrolls report.

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Launching JPMorgan’s central bank natural language processor for the Fed and ECB

In this week’s Research Rap of the Global Data Pod, Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss the launch of our natural language processor (NLP) tracking Fed, ECB and BoE communication. The output of this analysis is synthesized in the J.P. Morgan Hawk-Dove Score (HDS) that generates a deep archive of central bank policy statements and speeches. It tracks well the generally perceived shifts in central bank attitudes over the past few decades. At this week’s meetings the HDS highlights the dovish tilt at both central bank press conferences. For the Fed, the HDS fell to its least hawkish stance in nearly a year. For the ECB, the press conference maintains a more hawkish stance than last year’s meetings. 

 

 

 

This podcast was recorded on May 4, 2023. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395521-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod Weekender: Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth

Despite downside surprises, there is plenty of constructive signals in this week’s set of data releases. Global GDP growth last quarter is tracking 1%-pt above potential and 2%-pt above start-of-year expectations. While momentum is slowing, the sources of lift still point to resilience this quarter. Next week’s Fed and ECB to deliver another round of hikes.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.