Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Tuesday Apr 25, 2023
Tuesday Apr 25, 2023
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi,
Michael Hanson
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the global CPI data for March and the outlook for 2Q and beyond.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4392511-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4385270-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 21, 2023
Friday Apr 21, 2023
A robust 1Q23 is contrasted with signs of momentum loss through the quarter. However, while some data (US initial claims) raise concern, the latest data point to ongoing resilience. Combined with banking sector stress looking to be contained, the odds of the “boil the frog” scenario are increased and we look for another round of rate hikes in May from the major central banks.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 14, 2023
Friday Apr 14, 2023
Uncertainty following the recent credit shock has led some central banks to pause and others to slow — but sticky core CPI, still-tight labor markets, and elevated inflation expectations are keeping the pressure on. Some signs of cooling (but not cracking) are emerging in the US, whereas we now expect an even stronger rebound in China and see resilience in the latest Euro area data.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 07, 2023
Friday Apr 07, 2023
First-quarter global activity looks to have strengthened materially and, while we are looking for a deceleration in the current quarter, the March surveys are still pointing to strong momentum. Ahead of tomorrow’s US payroll report, we are expecting a slowing in job growth but to a still-solid pace. Combined with inflation that continues to run hot in most corners of the world, and in the US where next week’s core CPI is projected to have accelerated for a fourth straight month in March, central banks are caught between overheating and a potential credit crunch.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 07, 2023
Friday Apr 07, 2023
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Curation and Strategy, discuss the March payrolls report.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Mar 31, 2023
Friday Mar 31, 2023
The global expansion is looking even more resilient than expected, raising questions about the likelihood of our call for a US recession and global slowdown later this year. With global GDP growth over the past two quarters tracking a full %-point strong than expected in our November outlook, the profit margin compression we see as a catalyst for recession later this year has yet to start. The latest credit shock could be a game changer, but healthy fundamentals are likely to temper the drag. While headwinds are building and supports are fading, either greater financial stress or more central bank tightening may be needed to take steam out of the expansion.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Mar 24, 2023
Friday Mar 24, 2023
The risk of a meaningful tightening in credit conditions raises the odds of a US recession and potentially a global one as well. However, it is unclear whether the fallout from recent events is a newly-added headwind or a consequence of central banks’ intended slowdown. For now, growth and inflation are running hotter than expected even if the credit shock is also larger than expected. Consequently, forecasts remain unchanged even if tail risks have fattened.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Mar 21, 2023
Tuesday Mar 21, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Feroli to discuss the Fed’s response to the recent banking stress, historical parallels and the likely economic fallout. A rough estimate is that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract 0.5-1% off the level of GDP in coming quarters. We believe this is broadly consistent with our outlook of a Fed-induced recession later this year. The Fed isn’t done, in our view, and we look for another 25bp hike this week, and a final hike in May.
This podcast was recorded on Mar. 21, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4361113-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Mar 17, 2023
Friday Mar 17, 2023
Elevated financial market stress and uncertainty have arisen against a backdrop of sticky high inflation, still-tight labor markets, and recent upward revisions to growth in the US and China for this quarter. The ECB reacted to this quandary by hiking 50bp as previously signaled and maintaining a tightening bias, but removing any formal guidance and noting its available tools to address market dysfunction. We expect a broadly similar message from the Fed as it hikes 25bp next week.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Mar 10, 2023
Friday Mar 10, 2023
As we look to the coming spring, the data is anything but clear. This week’s news points to ongoing resilience while Chair Powell’s comments underscored that this may be too much of a good thing. Next week’s US CPI report looks to be hot yet again, moving the needle toward a 50bp Fed hike. The ECB is on deck for next week and has already pointed to 50bp. Also up next week will be the key China activity data for Jan-Feb.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.