Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday Mar 03, 2023
Friday Mar 03, 2023
The news on the week points to even greater resilience in the global expansion and more upside surprises on inflation. What’s a worried central bank to do? With a number of key data releases and central bank meetings coming up in March, the various scenarios of our outlook are considered: from soft-landings, to boiling frogs, to wrathful old testament central banks.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Mar 01, 2023
Wednesday Mar 01, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Jahangir Aziz to discuss China’s reopening and spillovers to the rest of EM. A consumption and services-led recovery in China points to a more muted spillover than typically implied by China’s headline growth. But if the rebound and reduced growth volatility spur a positive shift in business sentiment, the full impact can be larger than the sum of the parts.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research
Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4341171-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Monday Feb 27, 2023
Monday Feb 27, 2023
In this week’s Research Rap of the Global Data Pod, Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Alex Wise to discuss our recent special report on public sector debt sustainability. After gradually rising 35%-pt in the 30yrs since the mid-1970s, government debt in the developed markets has jumped roughly 50%-points in just 15 years. A framework is considered for assessing debt sustainability, while thoughts are provided exploring the path ahead.
Speakers
Bruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research
Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research
Alex Wise, Long-term Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4340654-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Feb 24, 2023
Friday Feb 24, 2023
Another week of data showing resilient growth—even strong in the case of the US—along with upside surprises in inflation add to the risks that the most rapid global hiking cycle in over forty years has longer to run. While we are willing to fade some of the signal in the punchy January data, the pressure is on for February data to show a return to the path of moderating growth and inflation in line with the goals of central banks to generate a soft-landing.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Feb 22, 2023
Wednesday Feb 22, 2023
Nigeria faces a pivotal election this coming Saturday where voters will choose a new president. Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa with vast oil wealth, but years of mismanagement have worsened imbalances and it has failed to fully benefit from the commodity windfall. From multiple exchange rate regimes to Central Bank quasi-fiscal spending to ballooning fiscal expenditure to high inflation, the next president will have a full in-tray. But based on the polling there is a chance that this election represents a break from the past.
In this edition of the Global Data Pod, Katie Marney is joined by Gbolahan Taiwo to discuss Nigeria’s election, what the polls say, the tall task ahead, and policy priorities for the next president.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Gbolahan Taiwo, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on February 22, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4337030-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4309655-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4263687-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Feb 21, 2023
Tuesday Feb 21, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Bruce Kasman to discuss why the widely held that monetary policy is already restrictive may be wrong. Central banks have been downshifting the pace of rate hikes based on the view neutral real rates remains close to zero in developed markets. But dramatic changes to the cyclical backdrop following the pandemic shock, along with the erosion of policy credibility and higher risk premia in several EMs, point towards higher neutral policy rates. Absent a recession taking hold this year, we expect views about the appropriate level of policy rates to shift higher. But if the dramatic rate hikes (400bp in DM and nearly 500bp in EM) generate a recession then the neutral rate rise will be obscured for some time.
The path to the next recession is hard to tie down, but risks are skewed in the direction of this dynamic taking longer and requiring higher rates than markets expect. Incoming data suggest that the path may not incorporate any meaningful pause but instead reflect a gradual but sustained adjustment to lean against still-elevated inflation risks. In this scenario, central banks may not be intending to create a downturn—but that risk will increase as they continue to tighten monetary policy rates above what is currently priced in markets.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Managing Director, Chief Economist
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research
This podcast was recorded on February 21, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4334724-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Monday Feb 20, 2023
Monday Feb 20, 2023
The latest data show a US (and global) economy that is not only proving more resilient than some had feared but also more inflationary. The odds have risen for an expansion that may be in need of central banks stepping on the breaks more than we had expected and even more than markets.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Monday Feb 13, 2023
Monday Feb 13, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Ayako Fujita and Benjamin Shatil to discuss the latest developments in the Bank of Japan’s path towards monetary policy normalization. We do not expect the new BoJ nominations to materially affect the timing of YCC removal which we still see taking place around mid-2023. However, rising demand-side pressures on prices and growing market pressures suggest risks are for an earlier move.
Our forecast also anticipates an eventual exit from negative interest rates (NIRP) by 2024. The BoJ’s shift will have important implications for capital flows and the yen as Japanese investors continue to rotate investments from foreign assets back to domestic debt.
This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332950-0.pdf https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4310608-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4316195-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Feb 10, 2023
Friday Feb 10, 2023
We continue to process January activity readings which point to the US expansions remaining intact while the China reopening bounce gathers. But this week’s news was the surprising firmness in January core CPI readings. The message of positive growth and inflation news should be reinforced by next week’s US reports where we look for a rise in core CPI of 0.5% m/m and a 2.2% bounce in retail sales.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Feb 07, 2023
Tuesday Feb 07, 2023
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Katherine Marney to discuss an improved macro landscape for EM and what it means for growth, capital flows and monetary policy. The fading of key near-term headwinds has led to a strong start for EM capital flows, and we believe these sources of support, including China’s re-opening, disinflation, and reduced near-term recession risks can last a while. Prospects of a late 2Q Fed pause, weaker USD and better global growth should open up space for EM central banks to ease monetary policy this year. Sustained strength in the US labor market poses a risk to this view. But provided inflation eases as we expect, and barring a re-pricing of the US dollar, we think the macro backdrop can remain supportive for EM.
Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325660-0.pdf, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4296890-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4316594-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4321526-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.