Global Data Pod

As we turn into 2024, the global economy continues to display resilience as well as sustained divergence in performance across sectors and markets. While optimism runs high that DM core inflation has slipped well below 3% and opens the door for early easing, we do not look for the coming months to send a clear signal to central banks. With goods price deflation set to fade, it will take time before a rebalancing of labor markets and normalization in service price inflation will be established.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the December jobs report.

This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the November CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the near-term outlook for inflation and central banks. 

 

This podcast was recorded on December 21, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4586495-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

An eventful week for data points to ongoing divergences: Sectorally (mfg weakness against resilient services) and geographically (US strength against EMU weakness). A similarly eventful week for central banks opens a another divide: While the Fed goes all-in on a soft-landing with a positive supply story and sees faster easing, the ECB turns pessimistic on European supply conditions and thus remains hawkish. The Weekender will return 5 January 2024. Until then, have a happy holiday.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

There are numerous paths to lower rates, each with different macro outcomes. Next week’s meetings are expected to deliver a Fed still showcasing a soft-landing but underscoring its hawkish bias in the face of resilient growth, and an ECB and BoE that maintain-but-tone-down their hawkish bias given growth concerns and easing inflation pressures.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 8 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers: 

 

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

 

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the November jobs report.

 

This podcast was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023.

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

Nora Szentivanyi and Katie Marney discuss EM’s macro resilience that has been evident in both growth and capital flows holding up well despite this year’s tightening in US financial conditions.  Major emerging market economies are on track to grow 3.1% this year (ex China)–close to trend and easily surpassing our forecasts from this time last year. This striking resilience reflects solid macro fundamentals and balance sheets in addition to responsible fiscal and monetary management which should continue to hold in the coming quarters. As other macro risks will remain contained, our forecasts show that a clear path from resilience to strength exists for EM capital flows next year. The dollar and the Fed will guide the direction for EM investment flows and both point to a softening in financial conditions. If the data do not give the Fed sufficient comfort to ease without a recession, then EM could be tested, but such an episode could prove less disruptive than in the past.

 

This podcast was recorded on December 6, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4573542-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553723-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553504-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4566733-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

Speakers: 

 

Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

 

Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies, including the 2024 economic outlook. Growth is forecast to improve in about half of the EM Edge economies, mainly due to countries recovering from past crisis and shocks. Growth will improve despite tighter fiscal policy and higher interest rates. Inflation is forecast to fall that opens space for monetary easing, outside of Africa where FX depreciation, high inflation and financing strains are putting pressure on policymakers to maintain high rates. Strong official sector support mitigates risks to growth and funding risks for many frontiers. Against this backdrop, the external context will be important in guiding the outlook for frontiers next year.

 

This podcast was recorded on Dec. 5, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4569627-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4573288-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

Ravi Balakrishnan, Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Greg Fuzesi, Morten Lund, and Allan Monks discuss their thoughts on the outlook for Western Europe. They talk through different scenarios for growth and inflation and the implications for central bank policy rate paths.

 

This podcast was recorded on 05 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at:

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4572258-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4551333-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4564625-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4570066-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Somewhat better news on both growth and inflation reduces the extreme tail risks of either a near-term break into recession or a rebound in inflation that requires further rate hikes. However, the mass of the likelihood distribution remains around our bottom-up soft-landing call and our top-down global view that sticky inflation requires high-for-long rates that in turn eventually drive a recession sometime over the next 4-6 quarters.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 1 December 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.