Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday Dec 02, 2022
Friday Dec 02, 2022
The near-term is characterized by a number of cross-currents, including brewing concerns about China, but the balance remains one of resilience. This week’s November PMIs paint a grim picture for global industry but other data show upside risk to the current-quarter growth outlook in the US and Europe. Global inflation is past its peak but remains elevated. The growth/inflation message reinforces our call for further rate hikes followed by an extended hold, but the risks around this are debated.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Nov 23, 2022
Wednesday Nov 23, 2022
We probe key issues raised in our recently published 2023 global economic outlook. In the face of near-term risks to China and Western Europe we continue to see the global economy to move forward on the back of fading supply-shocks that lowers inflation and fading DM fiscal drags. This will not, however, likely deliver a soft-landing scenario and we discuss the alternative scenarios in which the US and global economy could slip into recession over 2022-23.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
Greg Fuzesi
Jahangir Aziz
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Nov 18, 2022
Friday Nov 18, 2022
After a late start to the hiking cycle, central banks have put in place a policy path that is expected to generate a sharp slowing in global growth—and a US recession—that will contain inflation pressures. This will take several quarters however as consumers are getting a near-term boost from fading inflation. The benefits are not felt evenly, with the US tracking strong growth his quarter, Europe expected to slide into recession, and China’s homegrown headwinds holding growth to below potential.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Nov 11, 2022
Friday Nov 11, 2022
While not overreacting to one month of data, a welcome deceleration in US inflation this week points to both a consumer that is set for a marked improvement in purchasing power growth as well as a Fed that can slow its pace of hikes and eventually conclude by early next year. We maintain that recession risks are more of a concern for 2H23 rather than coming quarters, but recent indications of a sharp tightening in bank lending conditions raises some concern. China also remains a downside risk.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Nov 04, 2022
Friday Nov 04, 2022
The latest PMIs are consistent with the global economy settling back to the lackluster pace of growth is has averaged this year, but the momentum-loss is a concern even if tempered by further signs of ongoing strength in labor markets. The Fed pivoted but in the hawkish direction this week as did ECB rhetoric, while a more nuanced message is coming from other central banks.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Monday Oct 31, 2022
Monday Oct 31, 2022
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Katherine Marney to discuss the recently launched EM capital flows monitor, a new tool for tracking and nowcasting capital flows in Emerging Markets EM capital flows have become more diversified in the last ten years. FDI and loans carry more weight. Portfolio flows have weakened. Resident flows have become as large as non-resident flows. This is starkly different from the pre-2013 era, when resident outflows were small and capital flow dynamics were largely driven by foreign portfolio flows.
This podcast was recorded on October 31, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4237103-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4247869-0.pdf, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4120737-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Oct 28, 2022
Friday Oct 28, 2022
A macro pivot is underway with US and China GDP having bounced back last quarter after contracting in 1H, and with Europe now sliding into a recession this quarter. However, inflation remains high and surprising to the upside in both the US and Europe, tempering any chance of a material central bank pivot. Next week, we expect more hikes from the Fed, BoE, Norges, and RBA. If our forecasts are right, the global hiking cycle comes to an end by 1Q23. But this will require a significant moderation in inflation.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Monday Oct 24, 2022
Monday Oct 24, 2022
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Mike Feroli, Greg Fuzesi and Jose Cerveira to discuss recent trends in inflation expectation surveys across the US, Euro area and CE-3, and what these mean for monetary policy outlooks.
While longer-term consumer inflation expectations have generally not become unmoored, short-term measures have been more elevated of late. Even as global headline inflation has moderated in recent months, underlying pressures remain intense. A particular concern is that elevated inflation could get embedded into wage- and price-setting behavior, making it much more challenging—and ultimately more costly—to return inflation to target.
The amount of economic pain needed to get inflation back down to central bank targets varies by country and region, but a painless disinflation is unlikely anywhere. The large shocks working their way through economies are not yet giving a clear sense of where inflation will ultimately settle. Survey measures of price and household income expectations, as well as actual pricing decisions by corporates will thus be important to track, with large impacts on the outlook for monetary policy.
This podcast was recorded on Oct 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Oct 21, 2022
Friday Oct 21, 2022
Global policy rates outside China/Turkey are up over 300bp in the past year. Beyond the direct impact of higher borrowing costs on growth, the risks are that something breaks in the financial system. From the GFC to the Taper Tantrum, central banks have learned a lot and the rapid response to the pandemic was a case in point. But the UK flap is also a reminder that there are unknown unknowns to worry about. For now, central banks are focused in inflation—to be underscored by next week’s expected 75bp ECB hike and even a possible shift in tone from the BoJ.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Oct 21, 2022
Friday Oct 21, 2022
Featured in this podcast are Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil and Yuka Mera. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC policy in March next year, Kuroda’s last meeting before the end of his term, alongside broadening inflation momentum. But until that time, policy faces a tension between maintaining a functioning JGB market and limiting the impact of dovish monetary policy on currency stability. We do not expect the BoJ to provide any advance signal ahead of tweaking policy, but think every meeting from hereon is probably live. We do not expect a change at the October meeting, but nor is it a zero-probability event.
This podcast was recorded on Oct 21, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4231649-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4223217-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4217274-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.