Global Data Pod

Nora Szentivanyi and Dan Silver discuss the main takeaways from the September CPI reports, the outlook for coming months and how we see central banks responding to the incoming data. The latest reports suggest core inflation may be stabilizing amidst significant sectoral and regional divergence. On net, we’ve marked higher our 4Q23 global core inflation forecast to 3.2%q/q annualized (ex China and Türkiye) from 2.8% a month ago; this implies only limited easing from the 3Q pace. In the US, the details of the September report prompted an upward revision to US core inflation which we now expect to rebound to 3.6%ar this quarter from 2.8% in 3Q. While we continue to see the Fed on hold, we think the latest CPI report reinforces the idea that the FOMC will continue to communicate a tightening bias.

This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4540941-0, and  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4533084-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The dynamic of resilient but divergent growth against a worrying backdrop of rising bond yields kicked into overdrive this week. The US and China both reported better-than-expected data that show a much stronger 3Q GDP outturn with solid September momentum into the current quarter. At the same time, the UST 10yr yield surged yet again lifting borrowing costs. Likely to skip November, the Fed has time to data-watch but strong growth and rising inflation skew risks to more tightening.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by CE-3 chief economist Jose Cerveira to discuss inflation developments in EM and the scope for central banks to cut rates in a more challenging global environment of higher US rates and a stronger dollar. Core inflation has fallen sharply, in some cases  even faster than expected, bringing run rates close to central bank targets. But the disinflation trend appears overly reliant on core goods and the risk is that weaker EM currencies will now push inflation higher again, particularly in the countries where labor markets remain tight and/or fiscal policies turn more expansionary. Thus, while there is still space for EM central banks––especially those with high real rates and ample FX buffers ––to cut rates, it is only natural that they will be more cautious. 

 

This podcast was recorded on October 17, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4482187-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4526698-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4522745-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4534175-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

The latest developments are a reminder that the return to normal still has a ways to go. In the US, core inflation bounced back in September—boosted by some of the stickier components. More broadly, the resilience in both inflation and growth is reinforcing the high-for-long stances of central banks even as financial and geopolitical shocks loom over the outlook.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Michael Hanson, Dan Silver, and Murat Tasci discuss the health of the US consumer. Recent benchmark GDP revisions imply more excess saving while liquid asset holdings and net worth have surged since the pandemic began. These should cushion US households against recent headwinds, and support our call for a continued, if soft, expansion next year.

Speakers:

Michael Hanson

Daniel Silver

Murat Tasci

This podcast was recorded on 12 October 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4528206-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Amid plenty to worry about of late, we appreciate this week’s data showing a resilient global expansion. From our global PMI’s pointing to trend-like growth, to improvements in manufacturing bellwethers Asia and the US, to a robust payroll report in the US that comes with positive news on labor supply, the message is clearly positive. The risks from a weak Europe, rising bond yields, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not ignored, however.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:

Michael Feroli

Samantha Azzarello

This podcast was recorded on October 6, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The jump in long-rates poses a risk of something breaking in the near-term and curtailing the expansion in the medium-term. Against a backdrop of strong US growth and resilient—though struggling—growth elsewhere, the central bank challenge to it balance these two forces while assuring inflation cools.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the August CPI reports and the inflation outlook for the coming quarter. 

 

This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520743-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Amid a set of near-term headwinds from the oil shock, UAW strike, possible government shutdown the restart of student loan repayments, we maintain the US expansion continues. We have less conviction in Europe, were we now see GDP growth stalling amid a different set of headwinds. Making sense of this tension and how it resolves is important to the outlook. It is also a challenge faced by central banks trying to return inflation to target without generating a recession.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.