Global Data Pod

Speakers

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist

Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy

This podcast was recorded on May 5, 2023.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April payrolls report.

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

In this week’s Research Rap of the Global Data Pod, Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss the launch of our natural language processor (NLP) tracking Fed, ECB and BoE communication. The output of this analysis is synthesized in the J.P. Morgan Hawk-Dove Score (HDS) that generates a deep archive of central bank policy statements and speeches. It tracks well the generally perceived shifts in central bank attitudes over the past few decades. At this week’s meetings the HDS highlights the dovish tilt at both central bank press conferences. For the Fed, the HDS fell to its least hawkish stance in nearly a year. For the ECB, the press conference maintains a more hawkish stance than last year’s meetings. 

 

 

 

This podcast was recorded on May 4, 2023. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395521-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Despite downside surprises, there is plenty of constructive signals in this week’s set of data releases. Global GDP growth last quarter is tracking 1%-pt above potential and 2%-pt above start-of-year expectations. While momentum is slowing, the sources of lift still point to resilience this quarter. Next week’s Fed and ECB to deliver another round of hikes.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi,

Michael Hanson

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the global CPI data for March and the outlook for 2Q and beyond. 

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4392511-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4385270-0,  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

A robust 1Q23 is contrasted with signs of momentum loss through the quarter. However, while some data (US initial claims) raise concern, the latest data point to ongoing resilience. Combined with banking sector stress looking to be contained, the odds of the “boil the frog” scenario are increased and we look for another round of rate hikes in May from the major central banks.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty following the recent credit shock has led some central banks to pause and others to slow — but sticky core CPI, still-tight labor markets, and elevated inflation expectations are keeping the pressure on. Some signs of cooling (but not cracking) are emerging in the US, whereas we now expect an even stronger rebound in China and see resilience in the latest Euro area data. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

First-quarter global activity looks to have strengthened materially and, while we are looking for a deceleration in the current quarter, the March surveys are still pointing to strong momentum. Ahead of tomorrow’s US payroll report, we are expecting a slowing in job growth but to a still-solid pace. Combined with inflation that continues to run hot in most corners of the world, and in the US where next week’s core CPI is projected to have accelerated for a fourth straight month in March, central banks are caught between overheating and a potential credit crunch.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Curation and Strategy, discuss the March payrolls report.

 

Speakers:

Michael Feroli

Samantha Azzarello

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The global expansion is looking even more resilient than expected, raising questions about the likelihood of our call for a US recession and global slowdown later this year. With global GDP growth over the past two quarters tracking a full %-point strong than expected in our November outlook, the profit margin compression we see as a catalyst for recession later this year has yet to start.  The latest credit shock could be a game changer, but healthy fundamentals are likely to temper the drag. While headwinds are building and supports are fading, either greater financial stress or more central bank tightening may be needed to take steam out of the expansion.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The risk of a meaningful tightening in credit conditions raises the odds of a US recession and potentially a global one as well. However, it is unclear whether the fallout from recent events is a newly-added headwind or a consequence of central banks’ intended slowdown. For now, growth and inflation are running hotter than expected even if the credit shock is also larger than expected. Consequently, forecasts remain unchanged even if tail risks have fattened.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.