Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Monitoring a surge in global inflation

Bruce Kasman is joined by Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to introduce our monthly Global Inflation Monitor which details CPI performance through February.  While pressures from energy price shocks related to the Russia invasion were an important source of the 0.6%m/m February CPI increase, food and core price pressures have been building broadly (with the notable exception of China). 1Q22 Global core inflation ex. Turkey and China is tracking at its fastest pace of increase in over thirty years (5.6%ar). Inflation pressures are prompting central banks to tighten policy, but the squeeze in household purchasing power associated with this spike poses a threat to global growth. While we have already shaved 2.5% off our 2022 Euro area GDP forecast there is risk of a much sharper drop if the conflict pushes energy prices substantially higher. A number of low-income EM economies face a large terms-of-trade loss and building domestic political unrest due to surging food prices inflation. An important offset to this squeeze is materializing as governments use fiscal supports to cushion income losses. Outside the US, we look for at least 0.5%-of GDP in additional fiscal support this year. 

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic Research

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist

Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Senior Economist

 

This podcast was recorded on March 24, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4041230-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod Latin America: Brazil’s labor market may be tighter than it looks

In this podcast we investigate the strength of Brazil’s labor market. In particular, we use the formal jobs quits rate to gauge labor demand in the country. We find that labor market conditions have tightened beyond the reported official labor data in the last couple of years.

This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4036404-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Tis the winter of our growth content

Near-term risks to growth remain skewed to the upside on inflation and to the downside on growth, but the early-year data continue to show a resilient global expansion. Our global GDP nowcaster is tracking twice our forecast for 1.5%ar growth this quarter. While ready to act nimbly should growth falter, central banks are looking through the risks and on a path to normalize.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Just keep swimming

Despite growth downgrades amid surging inflation, the global economy is still expected to expand at a trend-like pace in 1H22. This is keeping central banks focused on normalization. The ECB was hawkish this week and next week’s Fed is set to lift off.

Speakers:

Joseph Lupton

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: How are women faring in the labor market recovery?

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Olya Borichevska, Jessica Murray and Joe Lupton to discuss gender gaps in labor market performance and how women have fared in the recovery from the pandemic.

Concerns over labor market scarring have been especially pronounced for women, who experienced an outsized hit during the 2020 recession compared to men, both in absolute terms and relative to previous recessions. This has raised concerns about structural change and potential scarring that could set back female labor performance.

While the recovery has seen the gender gap close in DM economies, women’s recovery has lagged in EM. We explore the reasons for this divergence and discuss what recent global developments mean for female labor and global labor markets more generally.

Speakers

Nora Szentivanyi, Global EM Economist

Olya Borichevska, Global Economist

Jessica Murray, EMEA EM Research

Joe Lupton, Managing Director, Global Economic Research

 

This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4014692-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4019923-0.pdf  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod Weekender: Two economists gaze into the abyss

Events are unfolding rapidly and yet uncertainty is still high and rising. This week, we mark down growth and raise inflation outlooks around the world but this may not yet be enough. Beneath the surface is a healthy global expansion, but it will be put to the test in the coming months.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Keep it simple: It’s about energy

We view the macro economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine largely through the lens of the energy sector where Russia accounts for more than 10% of global production. So far, sanctions have spared the energy sector and potential additional supply is in the offing from Iran. While risks will remain high – and risk premium maintained in crude oil and natural gas prices – this week’s events are prompting modest downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation forecasts.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Jahangir Aziz

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Gauging risks related to the Russian conflict

Bruce Kasman is joined by Natasha Kaneva and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict and its implication for commodity prices and the global outlook. With Russia moving troops into Ukraine we now believe risk premium will continue to put upward pressure on commodity prices and have raised our forecasts for a number of commodities in which Russia is an important export market. Most notably, we the Brent oil price averaging $115/bbl in 2Q22. There are two sided risks to this forecast. We are not forecasting the imposition of the full range of Western sanctions imposed that could produce large retaliatory action.  At the same time, the rising prospect that Iranian oil comes on to the market could produce lower prices if tensions around Ukraine abate. Rising oil prices is a drag on global growth buts its impact should be tempered by the lifting now underway as the Omicron wave is fading. In all, we do not expect the conflict to give the Fed reason for pause at it is expected to embark on a tightening cycle where we look for moves at each of the next nine meetings.

This podcast was recorded on February 23, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4011886-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4012251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Wait for it

Featured in this podcast are Bruce Kasman and Michael Hanson. While we continue to raise inflation forecasts and add to our expectations for central bank tightening, it is important to remember that global growth is downshifting this quarter. A risk of oil price spikes remains an important risk, but the latest news highlights consumer resiliency and signs that the COVID drag is fading in Europe. If we are right, these developments are setting the stage for a growth bounce next quarter.

This podcast was recorded on February 18, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Weekender: Too much cow bell

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joseph Lupton discussing how Inflation continues to run much hotter than already heightened expectations, this week from a blistering US CPI report for January. Gone is the word “transitory,” but there is a growing sense that the strong readings have more signal of a much tighter global economy that requires much more rapid normalization. March meetings are unlikely to surprise much but beyond that, the path look set to steepen notably.

This podcast was recorded on February 11, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.