Global Data Pod

We are increasingly confident that the global economy will avoid a recession. This owes largely to improvements in the US where a resilient labor market looks set to combine with falling inflation to boost spending. By contrast, surging inflation in Europe—which surprised to the upside this week—is expected to spark a recession. And in China, headwinds are building and we lower the outlook. Against this backdrop, the Fed and ECB are still focused on getting rates above or at least back to neutral respectively.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

No mind tricks in Fed Chair Powell’s brief but forceful message that more restrictive policy is coming and the Fed will not prematurely reverse course. With another solid US jobs report expected next week, we see the Fed hiking 75bp in September. This week also saw us put a deeper recession and higher inflation into our Euro area outlook, whereas more fiscal support in China reduces the downside risks to growth there.

Speakers:

Michael Hanson

Daniel Silver

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week’s data highlight regional divergences: US IP and retail sales were good, China’s domestic demand and real estate investment were not, and a surge in natural gas prices risks deeper downturns across Europe. Elevated inflation should keep DM central banks hiking further – we added 75bp to our BoE call for this year and look for Chair Powell to stress the Fed’s focus on getting inflation down at Jackson Hole next week.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

July CPI readings signify that a significant slowing of global inflation momentum is underway, largely due to falling energy prices. Softer demand and easing supply pressures should help bring down core as well. But with natural gas prices surging, Europe may stand out with limited disinflation and a contraction by year-end.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Despite an onslaught of supply shocks, the global expansion looks to have continued through July. Risks remain elevated, as the July global PMIs this week showed a concerning loss of momentum across sectors and regions—including Asia. However, a huge upside surprise in US job gains suggests employers continue to expand. With recession risks having faded some and headline inflation set to slow sharply, the focus is now on how aggressive central banks will need to act to remove underlying price pressures.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on August 5, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Daniel Silver to discuss our inflation forecasts that see Euro area inflation remaining elevated in 2H22 in contrast to significant moderation in the US and many EM economies. High inflation, boosted by surging natural gas prices, plays a key role in our forecast for Western Europe to slide into a mild recession in 2H22 whereas easing commodity price inflation should boost household purchasing power elsewhere.

The July CPI reports likely mark the beginning of this phase of inflation divergence that also augurs a rotation toward weaker relative European growth. We now expect Euro area inflation to remain at a 9%ar this quarter, boosted significantly by upward pressure on energy and food prices. At the same time, we are expecting a large drop in US CPI energy to lower headline gains to 0.2-0.3%m/m. A moderation in food price pressures should be significant in holding EM CPI gains to 0.3-0.4%m/m in coming months‑‑half their average rate of increase in 1H22.

 

This podcast was recorded on August 3, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4157249-0   , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4161891-0   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The US contracted again last quarter, while the Euro area bounced more than expected. Central to our call that the US avoids recession is that businesses keep hiring (claims remain below 275k). However, we now see the Euro area slipping into a mild recession later this year. Both the Fed and ECB to keep hiking, though growth risks are making them more data-dependent.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Malcolm Barr, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss our recent forecast revisions which sees Western Europe sliding into recession during 2H22.

 

Speakers

Bruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research

Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research

Malcolm Barr, Economic and Policy Research

Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Economic and Policy Research

 

This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4155520-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Further evidence of a loss in growth momentum in the US and Western Europe reinforces the message that recession risks are elevated. Central banks continue to hike rate and we look for an additional 75bp move from the Fed next week. However, there will likely be a greater sensitivity to both sides of the risk distribution as policy rates reach neutral levels and as labor markets weaken.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Michael Hanson

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this podcast we review how our economic outlook for Latin America has evolved as we pass the midpoint of 2022.  While we remain wary of challenges related to high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and significant political and electoral uncertainty, the slowdown in growth we expect has been pushed back, helped in part by terms of trade gains. However, the risks around global recession also put downside risk to our LatAm outlook, even raising the specter of financial stability concerns in some parts of the region.

Speakers:

Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research

Cassiana Fernandez, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Gabriel Lozano, EM, Economics Research

Diego Pereira, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2022.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4124443-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4148037-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.