Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Wednesday Jan 12, 2022
Wednesday Jan 12, 2022
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss recently published research showing that factory output is rebounding and sending encouraging signs that the bottlenecks holding back activity are easing. Evidence is emerging from the global PMIs and a range of transportation price measures. Even more encouraging is the robust recovery gathering steam in Asia, a goods-centric region at the center of the supply chain bottlenecks, and the motor vehicles sector where global output fell 25% over the first nine month of 2021. While final demand is growing at a modest pace, the strong desire to replenish depleted inventories has pushed global factory output gains to a double-digit annualized pace in the last three months of 2021.
The evolving spread of the Omicron variant looks likely to slow this recovery and generate a significant, synchronized drag on global growth this quarter. Our view is that services will bear the brunt of the near-term drag and that it is unlikely that there will be a significant renewal of manufacturing sector supply constraints. If right, manufacturing will take the lead in global growth this quarter as inventory replenishment continues.
This podcast was recorded on January 12, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3968 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Jan 11, 2022
Tuesday Jan 11, 2022
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Marco Protopapa and Malcolm Barr discuss the economic and political outlook for Italy in the light of the forthcoming choice of a new president. |
This podcast was recorded on January 11, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3965695-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jan 07, 2022
Friday Jan 07, 2022
The global recovery is experiencing a fading of the supply shocks that damped growth last year but now facing a new resiliency test in the form of Omicron. We expect industry to weather the storm better than services, a view supported so far by the December PMIs, and for the economy as a whole to fare better than prior COVID waves. Central banks are keeping their eyes on normalization, and we now see the Fed hiking in March and beginning balance sheet roll-off in July.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This was recorded on January 7, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Jan 05, 2022
Wednesday Jan 05, 2022
Bruce Kasman is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Joe Lupton, and Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the near-term inflation outlook. Global CPI inflation accelerated sharply last quarter to an estimated 5.9%ar, approaching its fastest pace over the past quarter century. This acceleration was accompanied by a notable broadening of price pressures. While a broadening of price pressures often signals a sustained upward shift in inflation but we believe it is appropriate to fade last quarter’s acceleration and look for a significant drop to a 3.5%ar in 1Q22.
It is easy to forecast a deceleration in energy inflation as a natural gas price shock is starting to fade. Forecasting the trajectory of core inflation is more complicated as goods and services prices face different COVID -related cross-currents. In all, we forecast core inflation to stabilize this quarter. But for the first time in a year, we assess risks at the start of the quarter as skewed towards a downside surprise. In contrast to last year’s COVID waves, it is unlikely that the Omicron wave derails the gradual relaxation of global supply constraints now underway. Its potential drag on service-sector demand thus poses the greatest near-term risk.
This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3961435-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Dec 17, 2021
Friday Dec 17, 2021
A very busy week in monetary policy watching delivered a set of central banks that are intent on starting down the path of normalization sooner than anticipated earlier this year but with a sense that the journey will be incremental. The implicit hope is for a soft landing that returns labor market to full employment while containing inflation. In the near-term, our baseline sees growth and inflation slowing early next year. The current quarter is looking strong but the new COVID-19 threat poses downside risks to 1Q21 GDP and two-sided risks to inflation.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on December 17, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday Dec 16, 2021
Thursday Dec 16, 2021
Bruce Kasman is joined by Michael Feroli, Allan Monks, Joe Lupton, and Greg Fuzesi to discuss this week’s DM central bank policy meetings. Although the Fed, Bank of England, and ECB moved on different fronts, each is accelerating its normalization process while emphasizing that there is no need to move very far. While we believe the Bank of England and Fed will raise rates three times next year, neither central bank is guiding toward a full normalization of stances over 2022-23. In a similar vein, the ECB announced an end to PEPP in March but suggested that policy rates are likely to remain on hold through 2022.
This podcast was recorded on December 16, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3953141-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952359-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Dec 10, 2021
Friday Dec 10, 2021
With pandemic headwinds building, the latest resiliency test to hit the global recovery is not over. However, current quarter outturns continue to impress, with trade numbers out of Asia pointing to a reintegration of supply chains and data out of US, German, and Japan auto sectors showing a rebound. Consumer spending is on the rise, showing notable resilience to multi-decade high inflation that is likely to fall back next quarter—expanding purchasing power. DM central banks are taking note and looking past near-term pandemic risks and down the path to normalization. Next week’s Fed expected to accelerate tapering, telescope lift-off, and boost the hiking pace.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on December 10, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday Dec 09, 2021
Thursday Dec 09, 2021
Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai, Ayako Fujita and Yuka Mera. The Japan economic and policy research team explores the key themes of Japan’s 2022 economic outlook and their implications for markets.
This podcast was recorded on Dec 9, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3940715-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Dec 03, 2021
Friday Dec 03, 2021
Featured in today's podcast are Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton as they discuss activity data point to fading bottlenecks, waning inflation pressures, and improving growth—concentrated in the goods sector. At the same time, rising COVID cases across Europe and the US, and the potential threat of Omicron, pose a risk to the outlook and a challenge for central banks. For now, positive signs on data and a tightening labor market seem to be pushing the Fed to taper faster and hike earlier.
This podcast was recorded on December 3, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Dec 03, 2021
Friday Dec 03, 2021
Featured in this podcast is Haibin Zhu, Grace Ng, Arthur Luk and Tiffany Wang. The Greater China economics and strategy team present 2022 economic outlook and its implications for strategy recommendations.
This podcast was recorded on December 3, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3934736-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3939324-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.