Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Macro risk from an un-natural gas shock

Bruce Kasman is joined by Natasha Kaneva, Joe Lupton, and Greg Fuzesi to assess the macroeconomic consequences of the recent surge in natural gas prices. Prices have soared to historic highs in response to a perfect storm of high demand and impediments to supply. With supplies already low and production struggling to keep pace with rapidly rising heating demands, the risks point to extremely tight markets and high prices for the months ahead. Natural gas is largely a regional affair. While the US is generally well supplied and Asia is first in line for LNG, Europe is the residual claimant and has seen the most stunning spikes in gas prices this year. Governments will subsidize consumers, but the risks to business margins and even factory operations in the face of energy constraints poses yet another threat to the recovery.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Natesha Kaneva

Joseph Lupton

Greg Fuzesi

This podcast was recorded on October 6, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3869150-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3871854-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod APAC: Inflation and Policy Normalization in EM Asia

Sajjid Chinoy and Sin Beng Ong discuss the implications of the region’s shift to an endemic equilibrium and its implication for monetary policy, with a focus on the upcoming RBI and MAS meetings.

This podcast was recorded on October 5, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3864472-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3876067-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3857972-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3812028-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod CEEMEA : What is going on with CEE central banks?

Nicolaie Alexandru and Jose Cerveira discuss the recent hike from Czech National Bank and outlook for policy rates of other central banks in the CEE region.

 

Speakers

Nicolaie Alexandru, Head of EMEA EM Economics

Jose Cerveira, Senior Economist for the CE3 region

 

This podcast was recorded on 1 October 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3876292-0,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3867304-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3875903-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod: From Pandemic to Endemic

Nora Szentivanyi and David Mackie discuss why the Delta wave has been more benign than expected and whether we are getting close to an endemic equilibrium.

 

This podcast was recorded on October 1, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3872999-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3866225-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3859107-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The curious case of US labor market healing

Although US real GDP is currently estimated to stand 2% above its pre-pandemic level, employment is still 3% from its pre-crisis norm. We discuss our latest research on US labor markets focusing on the roles that a shift in the composition of demand, pandemic-related supply shocks, and the recent removal of enhanced unemployment benefits play in impeding labor market healing.

 

Featured in this podcast:

Bruce Kasman

Jesse Edgerton

Joseph Lupton

Peter McCrory

 

This podcast was recorded on September 29, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3868316-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Global Data Pod EMEA: Central Banks turn toward tightening in Northern Europe

Malcolm Barr discusses recent shifts in expectations about the Bank of England, and the recent hike in rates by the Norgesbank, with Allan Monks and Morten Lund.

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 September 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod China risk: the global perspective

Downside risks for China have increased against the backdrop of a slowing in activity indicators and rising concern that recent regulatory policies will further weigh on growth. Although we believe that spillovers from rising credit stress will remain limited, the latest developments raise questions about the commitment and capability of policymakers to quickly boost growth. 

Any disappointment in China would have knock-on effects for global growth, but they are likely to prove modest in an environment in which cyclical momentum elsewhere remains strong and China’s policy shifts and credit overhangs are not indicative of broader global developments.

This podcast was recorded on September 22, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod EMEA: After the ECB, and ahead of German elections…

Malcolm Barr, Head of Western European Economics, is joined by Greg Fuzesi, Head of Euro Area Economics, to discuss yesterday’s ECB decisions and look ahead to elections in Germany later this month.

This podcast was recorded on Sept 10, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3804931-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod: Food Price Inflation Signals Broadening Pandemic Pressure

Food price inflation is accelerating globally (ex. China) and is now running at a faster pace than overall CPI. While weather and commodity price moves often explain food price moves the current pickup appears linked to the same pandemic related pressures raising core inflation. As a result it is a signal of broadening inflation pressures and a broadening drag on growth as bottlenecks and rising input costs generate a purchasing power squeeze. However, in contrast to 2010-11, most central banks are likely to view this as a transitory inflation impulse for now.

This podcast was recorded on September 8, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3855988-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Global Data Pod: Delta’s summer surprises

We have been anticipating a large wave of Delta variant infections this quarter to weigh on mobility and generate a modest drag on global growth. In the event, the Delta wave has proved surprisingly mild thus far as global mobility continues to rise. But indirect drags from the Delta variant are probably greater than we anticipated. Its concentration in Asia is extending supply chain disruptions and rising concerns about a transition to a COVID endemic may be weighing on confidence. 

This podcast was recorded on September 1, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3851149-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.