Global Data Pod

Malcolm Barr, Head of Western European Economics, is joined by Greg Fuzesi, Head of Euro Area Economics, to discuss yesterday’s ECB decisions and look ahead to elections in Germany later this month.

This podcast was recorded on Sept 10, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3804931-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Food price inflation is accelerating globally (ex. China) and is now running at a faster pace than overall CPI. While weather and commodity price moves often explain food price moves the current pickup appears linked to the same pandemic related pressures raising core inflation. As a result it is a signal of broadening inflation pressures and a broadening drag on growth as bottlenecks and rising input costs generate a purchasing power squeeze. However, in contrast to 2010-11, most central banks are likely to view this as a transitory inflation impulse for now.

This podcast was recorded on September 8, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3855988-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We have been anticipating a large wave of Delta variant infections this quarter to weigh on mobility and generate a modest drag on global growth. In the event, the Delta wave has proved surprisingly mild thus far as global mobility continues to rise. But indirect drags from the Delta variant are probably greater than we anticipated. Its concentration in Asia is extending supply chain disruptions and rising concerns about a transition to a COVID endemic may be weighing on confidence. 

This podcast was recorded on September 1, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3851149-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Our forecasts anticipate an acceleration in global growth this quarter but incoming data point to momentum slowing. There are likely a number of factors contributing to this slowing – including China policy tightening; a Delta sentiment drag; and persistent supply side constraints. While it is still likely that global growth will remain well above-trend, risks to our 2H21 forecast for global GDP to grow nearly 3%-pts above its potential pace are now skewed to the downside. Our focus is thus shifting toward confirming that the forces currently weighing on momentum will soon fade from the scene.  

 

This podcast was recorded on August 25, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We discuss the implications of our latest research on the UK pointing to a third wave of COVID infections that will likely peak at much higher levels than the previous two. We consider the consequences for health care and economic outcomes in the UK and focus on the lessons of the UK experience for the rest of the world.

This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3804931-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We discuss the economic recovery in Japan post-summer, addressing aspects of the outlook from supply constraints and vaccination rates to production dynamics and government policy.

 

This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2021.

 

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The global economy’s first-half performance was marked by resilient growth in the face of the second wave of the pandemic, alongside broad-based upside inflation surprises. Although we expect divergent policy impulses to sustain a wide US-China growth gap, acceleration elsewhere is central to our 2H21 outlook. We look for vaccinations to more fully sever the link between economic activity and the virus unleashing significant pent-up consumer demand in Europe, Japan, and EM ex. China. Fading pandemic headwinds should also relieve supply constraints which were a significant source of inflation in 1H21. However, alleviating bottlenecks will take time and the anticipated re-opening of service-sectors should lift inflation in areas where normally-sticky prices moved lower last year.

This podcast was recorded on July 14, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3794739-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Global Data Pod: Breaking the waves as vaccinations pave the way for acceleration and greater balance in 2H21 growth” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and David Mackie discuss their recent research on EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant and its potential to delay reopening and recovery in EM economies.

 

This podcast was recorded on July 9, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  

Institutional clients can view the related report at EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant (Szentivanyi, Mackie – 8 July 2021); The race between vaccinations and variants (Mackie – 25 June 2021); COVID-19 vaccination thresholds and the 'new normal' (Mackie – 14 June 2021); Global vulnerabilities to the COVID-19 variant B.1.617.2   (Mackie – 11 June 2021);  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

• On top of humanitarian and economic damage, COVID-19 has challenged to economic data analysis
• In particular, existing core CPI metrics may not be the best gauge of underlying inflation given the many supply and demand shocks involved in this crisis
• We use the methodology of Shapiro (2020) to decompose core EX0 inflation…
• …and we use part of this decomposition to propose a new Core-COVID IPCA

The objective of this metric is to avoid confusing temporary fluctuations with a more structural inflationary process. In our view, using this new core along with other measures would be useful to understand inflation dynamics.

 

This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3792601-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Malcolm Barr (Head of Western European Economics) is joined by Alan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss recent inflation developments and their forecasts for the next 12 months.

 

This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.