Global Data Pod

Further year-end confirmation of a robust global consumer (outside China) supports the call that the expansion is weathering the various US policy risks. The key missing ingredient remains labor markets. The Fed will have to find its way amid strong growth and elevated inflation this year. With personnel changes coming up, leadership questions abound. 

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 23 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Resilience in consumer spending has been an important foundation for growth in 2025. Absent a pickup in hiring, this cannot be sustained. Is the stage set for a change? Are last year’s US policies a last-year story? Are this year’s latest US policy announcements meaningful? Is the Fed in serious jeopardy? Can you believe we’re only two weeks into the new year? 

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 16 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The outlook for growth in 2026 is almost the same as for 2025. But the similarities end there, as growth in 2025 was imbalanced in a number of ways and these are unlikely to be sustained. We discuss these drivers and the needed rotation to new drivers, while also debating how to interpret the latest data and geopolitical developments. Growth is tracking strong, but labor markets are still a key concern.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4691534-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest CPI reports.  Led by a sharp moderation in service price gains, global core (and headline) inflation slid to just 2.1%ar in the three months to November––a 1%-pt slide from August and its lowest in five years.  This downward trajectory is once again raising the question of whether the disinflation trend will continue into the new year. As in the past two years, we downplay the slide and look for a rebound in core inflation to a 3.1%ar in 1H26––unchanged from where it has settled since early 2024. In the US, a reversal of the data distortions due to the government shutdown  along with further tariff pass-through is set to push inflation higher in the near-term. In Europe, core inflation should continue to moderate in sympathy with softening wage inflation, though start-of-year price increases pose upside risks to service prices.

 

This podcast was recorded on 06 January 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5167134-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5160379-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5161477-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5159323-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party

Kicking the tires
After two weeks off, the Weekender picks back up with a chat about the data in recent weeks and a probing of the upside and downside risks to the 2026 outlook. Two underappreciated issues for the US are also discussed: still-to-come immigration drags and the hit to growth and inflation from health care costs.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on December 12, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have captured the attention of global investors in 2026. In this episode, Anatoliy Shal, Khamza Sharifzoda, and Nicolaie Alexandru dive into the factors fueling investor interest across Central Asia this year. The conversation also explores the outlook for 2026, examining whether these driving forces will sustain the region’s momentum. Our speakers also discuss key economic and political risks that may impact Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the year ahead.

This podcast was recorded on December 08, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5136574-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5140889-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5124410-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

 

 

The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Combined with the bulk of data coming after the Fed’s Dec meeting, a pause looks sensible. Asia views are upgraded, but possibly with a little too much verve.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on November 11, 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of solid  3Q GDP tracking and improving PMIs through October, we once again see the tock of even weaker labor market data this week from the US and Western Europe. Resilience into next year depends on how well the tick weathers the tock.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 14 November 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and improving activity data from Asia and Europe. Whether IEEPA tariffs are reversed may not change Trump’s mission (with numerous tools still at his disposal) but it could indicate that this Supreme Court has some limits—with a possible read-through to the Fed Governor Lisa Cook court case in January.

 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

 

This podcast was recorded on 7 November 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continued sticky inflation around 3%. Along with the trimming of downside growth risks, this has unsurprisingly prompted central banks to turn less dovish. While US core inflation has risen less than expected at the outset of the trade war, it is running well above target and we still anticipate tariff-related pressures will push it higher, with the likely peak now in 1Q26.  Outside the US, core inflation has moderated somewhat as goods inflation is not seeing the same tariff-induced bounce. However, core services inflation has yet to fully normalize, and volatile items add to the sticky core picture.

Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist 
Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canada Economist

This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2025. 

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5113765-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094754-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5110036-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.