Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday Aug 05, 2022
Friday Aug 05, 2022
Despite an onslaught of supply shocks, the global expansion looks to have continued through July. Risks remain elevated, as the July global PMIs this week showed a concerning loss of momentum across sectors and regions—including Asia. However, a huge upside surprise in US job gains suggests employers continue to expand. With recession risks having faded some and headline inflation set to slow sharply, the focus is now on how aggressive central banks will need to act to remove underlying price pressures.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on August 5, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Aug 03, 2022
Wednesday Aug 03, 2022
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Daniel Silver to discuss our inflation forecasts that see Euro area inflation remaining elevated in 2H22 in contrast to significant moderation in the US and many EM economies. High inflation, boosted by surging natural gas prices, plays a key role in our forecast for Western Europe to slide into a mild recession in 2H22 whereas easing commodity price inflation should boost household purchasing power elsewhere.
The July CPI reports likely mark the beginning of this phase of inflation divergence that also augurs a rotation toward weaker relative European growth. We now expect Euro area inflation to remain at a 9%ar this quarter, boosted significantly by upward pressure on energy and food prices. At the same time, we are expecting a large drop in US CPI energy to lower headline gains to 0.2-0.3%m/m. A moderation in food price pressures should be significant in holding EM CPI gains to 0.3-0.4%m/m in coming months‑‑half their average rate of increase in 1H22.
This podcast was recorded on August 3, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4157249-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4161891-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 29, 2022
Friday Jul 29, 2022
The US contracted again last quarter, while the Euro area bounced more than expected. Central to our call that the US avoids recession is that businesses keep hiring (claims remain below 275k). However, we now see the Euro area slipping into a mild recession later this year. Both the Fed and ECB to keep hiking, though growth risks are making them more data-dependent.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Jul 27, 2022
Wednesday Jul 27, 2022
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Malcolm Barr, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss our recent forecast revisions which sees Western Europe sliding into recession during 2H22.
Speakers
Bruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research
Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research
Malcolm Barr, Economic and Policy Research
Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4155520-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 22, 2022
Friday Jul 22, 2022
Further evidence of a loss in growth momentum in the US and Western Europe reinforces the message that recession risks are elevated. Central banks continue to hike rate and we look for an additional 75bp move from the Fed next week. However, there will likely be a greater sensitivity to both sides of the risk distribution as policy rates reach neutral levels and as labor markets weaken.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Tuesday Jul 19, 2022
Tuesday Jul 19, 2022
In this podcast we review how our economic outlook for Latin America has evolved as we pass the midpoint of 2022. While we remain wary of challenges related to high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and significant political and electoral uncertainty, the slowdown in growth we expect has been pushed back, helped in part by terms of trade gains. However, the risks around global recession also put downside risk to our LatAm outlook, even raising the specter of financial stability concerns in some parts of the region.
Speakers:
Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Cassiana Fernandez, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Gabriel Lozano, EM, Economics Research
Diego Pereira, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4124443-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4148037-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 15, 2022
Friday Jul 15, 2022
More inflation in the US puts more stress on consumers and on the Fed. China hole gets bigger but so too does the rebound. On net, we leave the week seeing risks of recession largely unchanged: under 50% but not much. Anxiety builds ahead of an expected restart of Russian gas flows to Europe next Thursday, while next Friday’s flash PMIs to flag further momentum loss.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 08, 2022
Friday Jul 08, 2022
Behind welcomed resilience, the data flow of late reveals a vulnerable global expansion at midyear. While strong US June payrolls should disabuse those thinking the US is already in recession, it raises concerns about long it can last given soft GDP growth and the resulting drag on profits. Similarly, a strong global PMI report for June masks underlying momentum loss excluding a robust reopening bounce in China.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jul 01, 2022
Friday Jul 01, 2022
After a weak first-half, unrelenting adverse shocks look set to reduce global GDP growth in the second half to remain below trend. The data flow this week—from disappointing news on the US consumer to a grim PMI report on global industry—underscore that momentum loss at midyear. With the bar on growth lowered, the next rung for downside risks to flag is a global recession. Short of this materializing, the Fed is likely to stay the course until reaching 3% on rates before turning somewhat more growth-sensitive.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jun 24, 2022
Friday Jun 24, 2022
In the wake of impressive resilience through 1H22, the global expansion looks increasingly brittle at midyear. While activity data from Asia show an encouraging bounce back from earlier pandemic drags, relentless inflation headwinds threaten to break the back of the consumer in the US and Europe. Confidence has dropped to forty year lows in Europe, while US and European flash PMIs took a larger than expected dip in June—with a surprising decline in the service sector PMI belying the strength of the much-anticipated re-opening dynamic. Next week’s inflation and survey readings to further underscore downside risks.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.