Global Data Pod

The service sector remains a growth engine at midyear, despite clear signs that normalization lift is beginning to fade. With manufacturing survey still pointing to weakness, this engine will need to continue to be the primary source of global growth this quarter.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers:

Michael Feroli, Economic Research

Samantha Azzarello, Global Research

 

This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Joseph Lupton take stock of the rise in household (and overall private sector) debt service ratios in the wake of the sharp rise in interest rates since 2021-22 and discuss what to expect from here. While the projected increases in DSRs this year look manageable on the whole, there is significant variation across countries: the most interest rate-sensitive are seeing a faster pass-through; differences in leverage and the size of rate hikes also matter. Whereas many in DM have yet to see a significant rise in DSRs, the bulk of EM’s rise is likely behind us as EM central banks started hiking earlier and are already shifting towards rate cuts even as DM remains in tightening mode.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research

Joseph Lupton, Global Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4444911-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4446781-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

While our modal views on the global outlook are not changing much, risks of imminent recession are fading and the likelihood of an intra-cycle lift should not be ignored. The goods sector is most primed for a bounce in this case, but the fate of the medium-term outlook will rest more on service sector normalization and the broader sensitivities to past policy tightening.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views.

This podcast was recorded on June 28, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4447959-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Our midyear outlook published this week maintains that a recession is not imminent but will take time to manifest as rates rise further. However, the data out this week from the ugly flash June PMIs across the developed markets to another high US claims reading raises the risk that, rather than a distinct break, the expansion is grinding into a recession more gradually but sooner than expected.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Gabriel Lozano to discuss how Mexico is benefitting from the reshuffling of global trade and investment, primarily outside of China, and how much further this trend could run.

While Mexico has caught up with China in terms of its US import share, domestic factors including institutional hurdles, low productivity and competitiveness will likely limit the reach and depth of “near-shoring” despite Mexico’s cost and location advantages.

 

This podcast was recorded on June 21, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4281790-0 

 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Central banks are signaling a resolve to continue raising policy rates and a “boil the frog” scenario is becoming increasingly likely. In this regard,  the Fed delivered a pause but guided towards two further rate hikes, pointing to a hike in July as a reasonable possibility. The ECB was even stronger in guidance towards a further hike next month and the Bank of England will likely hike and signal more to come next week.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

While rate decisions look relatively well signaled at next week’s G3 meetings, forward guidance is in flux. The Fed’s pause will be hawkish and likely accompanied by a rise in the dots to show an additional hike this year. The ECB is likely to eschew strong guidance, keeping uncertainty high about where they will pause. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC band but signal that the start of rate normalization is not near.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Nicolaie Alexandru and Katherine Marney to discuss vulnerabilities of the EM Edge economies to higher interest rates, slower growth and lower oil prices.

Amid higher global interest rates, several EM Edge economies have lost market access and have turned to multilateral funding. Tighter funding is coming against the backdrop of wide fiscal deficits, larger debt stocks and lower reserves stocks. Declining oil prices also offer mixed benefits to the EM Edge group as global growth moderates. Against this backdrop, efforts to improve debt sustainability have become even more pressing.

Speakers:

Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research

Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research

Katherine Marney, EM, Economic and Policy Research

This podcast was recorded on June 8, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4426761-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428035-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4420830-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.