Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday Jun 17, 2022
Friday Jun 17, 2022
China is rebounding smartly in May, and spillovers from the downturn remain mild. But inflation is surging everywhere and this is damping growth in the goods sector. The Fed upped its hiking pace to 75bp this week with another likely to come, guiding to a restrictive stance before yearend. In doing so while also now forecasting a rising unemployment rate suggests a singular focus on inflation and less of a growth-put than in the past—at least until inflation moderate.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday Jun 16, 2022
Thursday Jun 16, 2022
Arindam and Sin Beng discuss some of the key drivers of the macro narrative in EM Asia for 2H22, which we have coined – on the macro side “Mercury Rising” – and for strategy it’s going “From acute to chronic.” We talk through some the salient drivers underlying these macroeconomic views and their implications for FX and rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on Jun 16, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4119405-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4121834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jun 10, 2022
Friday Jun 10, 2022
This week’s news centered around continued upward inflation pressure and the response from those central banks with still accommodative stances. The ECB made a significant shift this week and now looks likely to hike 125bp before year end. The RBA is also front-loading its rate hikes with the Fed set to deliver a 50bp hike with the promise of more to come. This dynamic is unlikely to change until growth slows materially, a development we now expect for the US during 2H22.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Jun 03, 2022
Friday Jun 03, 2022
The latest data continue to show encouraging resilience to the headwinds weighing on growth in 1H22. Strong labor markets are supporting consumers while factory output is humming along outside of China and Russia. Although the downside risks remain material for the near-term, the medium-run risk is shifting to a 2H22 rebound with upside inflation pressures that require more central bank normalization than currently expected.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday May 27, 2022
Friday May 27, 2022
The latest data underscore the remarkable resilience of the global expansion, a testament both to the bounce-back potential still levering growth as well as the robustness of the fundamentals. However, with the headwinds intensifying rather than fading as we have hoped for, the risks to 2H22 are skewing down. Along with a global overview, we do a deeper dive on the US consumer and the Fed with US economist Peter McCrory.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Peter McCrory
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday May 25, 2022
Wednesday May 25, 2022
Featured in this podcast are Ayako Fujita and Yuka Mera. The recent significant cost pressures have hit firms in Japan, but Japan’s CPI inflation remains low, with limited cost passthrough. This is particularly notable among SMEs, as large companies have forced them to limit price increases. To address this, the government is creating policy to enforce cost passthrough, such as changing legal operation standards and strengthening its monitoring system. Such moves likely will help Japan break out of its long-standing low-inflation equilibrium. We thus expect the trend of core inflation (ex. food and energy) will rise from a pre-pandemic three year average of 0.3%oya to around 1.2% by the end of 2022. However, even with this acceleration, inflation still remains well below the BoJ target of 2%, and therefore we don’t expect a policy shift from the BoJ. If a positive cycle can be created in which a rise in firms’ pricing power leads to higher wages, which in turn raises consumers’ purchasing power, we would expect to see a further shift up in core inflation, leading to a policy shift from the BoJ.
This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4099664-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday May 20, 2022
Friday May 20, 2022
The data this week underscore a worsening headwind from China and a continued purchasing power drag from rising refined energy prices. However, it also showcases the strength and resilience of the consumer. Despite rising market jitters, we (and more importantly the Fed) have conviction the expansion continues.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday May 13, 2022
Friday May 13, 2022
While high inflation and a range of shocks have dragged down 1H22 growth, we still see a resilient global economy returning to above-trend growth in 2H. However, lingering COVID-related lockdowns in China, rising food prices, and tightening financial conditions put some downside risk into this outlook. Next week’s April activity data will be a study in contrasts: very weak in China but rebounding in the US.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday May 12, 2022
Thursday May 12, 2022
Bruce Kasman is joined by David Mackie to discuss his recently released special report Living with COVID-19. Much of the world is moving quickly from a pandemic to an endemic equilibrium in which COVID will require minimal government restrictions and only limited pressure on healthcare systems. While this transition should boost global growth and promote a narrowing the wide growth gaps created by the virus, there are two important obstacles to normalization. First, the most populous country in the world China, is not in position join the rest of world in this transition. Second, the pandemic has likely had a lasting impact on labor markets which are remarkably tight and will likely place constraints on normalization.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
David Mackie
This podcast was recorded on May 12, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/t/GPS-4086751-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday May 06, 2022
Friday May 06, 2022
The global economy is proving resilient so far to the many shocks and headwinds slowing activity this year. This has greenlighted central banks to normalize more rapidly. News that Fed will follow its 50bp hike this week with two more 50’s underscores the strong desire to return to neutral before yearend. Hawkish sentiments are sweeping through the central bank universe with even former doves changing tune. China remains a key near-term global growth threat.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.