Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Jun 6, 2023
Jun 6, 2023
10 min
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton, Senior Global Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on June 5, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4429734-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428335-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4405286-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jun 2, 2023
Jun 2, 2023
18 min
From downside risks in the US and upside risks in Europe and China just a few months ago, we now are seeing fading tail risks in the US (banks stress and debt ceiling) and improving data pointing to upside risks while recent data have taken out the upside in Europe and China. Although we still see the Fed pausing this month, the bias to hike will remain.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Jun 2, 2023
Jun 2, 2023
4 min
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
May 26, 2023
May 26, 2023
18 min
Although zero-COVID and its removal have been dominant drivers of China growth over the past year, the outlook hinges on a recovery in business sentiment which has been depressed by a housing correction and a set of government policies which had generated private sector uncertainty. We expect those drags to gradually fade, and the recovery in business spending from depressed levels should be an important source of China growth.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Jahangir Aziz
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
May 25, 2023
May 25, 2023
21 min
With the full set of April CPI releases to hand, Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
May 24, 2023
May 24, 2023
25 min
Nora Szentivanyi, Sajjid Chinoy and Sonja Keller discuss EM’s debt dynamics and why boosting GDP growth is so crucial to achieving post-pandemic debt sustainability. While some of the pandemic surge in EM debt ratios has been pared back in last two years, reducing them further will be much more challenging in an environment of slowing nominal GDP growth and rising interest rates.
This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395071-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4326109-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4402859-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4263350-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
May 19, 2023
May 19, 2023
21 min
We downgrade our current quarter forecast for China and recognize the looming risks associated with extending the US debt ceiling. But the overall message from the global economy is one of still solid growth amidst early signs that a weak manufacturing sector is poised to recover. The Fed and other central banks are inclined to pause but we would resist describing these moves as the end of the tightening cycle.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
May 12, 2023
May 12, 2023
14 min
This week’s news of tightening US bank lending standards and a sharp rise in unemployment insurance claims fuels worries about an impending recession. However, beneath the surface, there are reasons to fade the downsides somewhat. More importantly, April activity data are shaping up for a solid bounce after softness late last quarter—echoing the global survey data and US payrolls report already in hand. While we still see recession taking hold eventually, we also maintain our call that its not going to come in the next few months.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
May 10, 2023
May 10, 2023
31 min
Nora Szentivanyi, Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson discuss the tightening in US, Euro area and EM credit conditions through the lens of the latest bank lending surveys, the implications for the growth outlook and central bank decisions. While these surveys show that that credit conditions did tighten further last quarter and loan demand continued to fall, the moves were not as severe as some might have feared. Indeed, against a backdrop of continued resilience in recent activity data, the latest surveys do not indicate an imminent break in growth. Rather, we expect this drag to accumulate over the year, contributing to a mild year-end recession in the US in our base case.
Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research
Greg Fuzesi, Economic and Policy Research
Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 10 May 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4409223-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4408145-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4402074-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
May 5, 2023
May 5, 2023
18 min
The Fed moved towards a pause this week as it sees clouds on the horizon related to bank stress and the debt ceiling deadline. But the data continues to emphasize that the battle to lower is far from done.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Feroli
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.