Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
Episodes
Friday May 06, 2022
Friday May 06, 2022
The global economy is proving resilient so far to the many shocks and headwinds slowing activity this year. This has greenlighted central banks to normalize more rapidly. News that Fed will follow its 50bp hike this week with two more 50’s underscores the strong desire to return to neutral before yearend. Hawkish sentiments are sweeping through the central bank universe with even former doves changing tune. China remains a key near-term global growth threat.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 29, 2022
Friday Apr 29, 2022
We are proud to launch a new weekly economics publication, the EM Edge Data Watch. The Edge provides in depth coverage of over 30 economies currently not followed in our flagship Global Data Watch and folds in a set of regional products for this group. While the Edge is far from unified and represents countries with widely varying per capita GDP levels, market structure, and available economic indicators we see considerable value in standardizing their weekly coverage under one roof. Our aim is to provide a market-leading vehicle tracking economic releases and policy narratives while presenting insightful economic analysis both within and across countries. We hope you will find the EM Edge Data Watch useful and welcome feedback.
Speakers
Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on April 29, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4070076-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 29, 2022
Friday Apr 29, 2022
A modest contraction in 1Q US GDP masks stronger underlying strength and is also offset by upside surprises across Europe and Asia. Inflation surprises continue, this week notably in the Euro area. While energy prices to moderate across the DM, core is elevated and more sticky. Next week, the Fed is to ramp up the pace of its most rapid normalization in over a quarter-century, with a raft of hikes elsewhere. Downside risks to the global outlook from China loom large over the near-term.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 22, 2022
Friday Apr 22, 2022
While the US and Europe are displaying impressive resilience China is slowing sharply following its strong start to the year. With China hurt by COVID restrictions the region will face both slower export demand and increased supply pressures in the coming months. Importantly, other economies in the region are set to receive a boost from fading COVID drags and China policy is pivoting towards ease.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Sin Beng Ong
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Wednesday Apr 20, 2022
Wednesday Apr 20, 2022
Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai and Benjamin Shatil. The pace of recent yen depreciation has been remarkable, and the debate around its effect on the Japan economy is understandably intensifying. Under such conditions, concerns about the rise in import prices are mounting, but the impact of yen depreciation on inflation has been mild so far, while that on growth is still positive. That said, current yen depreciation highlights a divide between direct sufferers and beneficiaries, raising political issues. In particular, attention should be paid as well to its impact on corporate and household sentiment. BoJ is unlikely to adjust YCC due to yen depreciation unless it faces a significant rise in political pressure, in which case the BoJ could temporarily allow the 10yr yield to exceed the upper band. If any relief in yen weakness is temporary, the impact would not last. More drastic measures would be from the income distribution side if needed. At this point, currency intervention is not on the table.
This podcast was recorded on Apr 20, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4061110-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4061171-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4062330-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday Apr 14, 2022
Thursday Apr 14, 2022
Current data show a consumer resilient to a powerful set of headwinds but also one that is slowing into the current quarter. Powerful supports are expected to lift spending in 2H22 as inflation pressures fade. China remains a wildcard as next week’s data to show strong 1Q22 GDP but monthly contractions heading into 2Q22.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 08, 2022
Friday Apr 08, 2022
The global economy is undergoing the largest purchasing power squeeze in a quarter century, with March inflation running twice the fastest pace seen since the early 1980s. Beyond the near-term threat, however, fundamentals keep our outlook for a return to robust growth by 2H22 and for central banks to keep normalizing.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Apr 01, 2022
Friday Apr 01, 2022
This week brings a set of March data that underscores the forces buffeting the global expansion and the supports that are helping to cushion it. European inflation and US payrolls point to a huge purchasing power squeeze that is being offset by robust job growth. The global PMIs show the shocks falling differently around the world, with Asia feeling the brunt (so far) from China’s zero-COVID lockdowns. Central banks are still looking beyond the near-term downsides and we revise up rate forecasts for the Fed, ECB, and BoE.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Thursday Mar 31, 2022
Thursday Mar 31, 2022
Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai and Ayako Fujita. Japan’s economy has long faced deflation and disinflation; in this it has been an outlier globally. Unlike in other DMs, reflationary feedback between a tight labor market and inflation has failed. However, the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and especially Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may change that, as other nations limit Russia’s participation in global energy markets, and Japan likely will accelerate the use of high-cost renewable energy to compensate for the loss of fossil fuels, and focus more on economic security than economic efficiency. The resulting persistent input cost pressures could prompt firms to change their price-setting behavior, supported by accommodative macroeconomic policies, and allow Japan to exit its disinflationary equilibrium. While recognizing the caveats that this scenario assumes that the global economy will return to above-trend growth after 1H22 and there will be no premature signal of normalization of the monetary and fiscal policy, we discuss the prospects for Japan’s persistent disinflation to end over the medium term.
This podcast was recorded on Mar 31, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4043640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Friday Mar 25, 2022
Friday Mar 25, 2022
The global economy is being buffeted by two related shocks – a spike in inflation magnified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a large increase in global bond yields sparked by the hawkish pivot by the Fed. There is a risk that we underestimate the size of these shocks, with the greatest concern linked to the potential for Russian energy supply to Europe to be shut off. In addition, there is concern that these two developments could interact and generate financial stress. To date, financial conditions are tightening as interest rates rise but there are no clear pressure points of stress raising unusual concerns.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.