Global Data Pod

Japan’s economic recovery is still incomplete. With the belated start of vaccinations, Japan’s state of emergency was renewed three times during the first three quarters of 2021, leaving business restrictions in place for most of the period. This has dampened economic activity, particularly in services, leaving real GDP below the 2019 average even a year and half after the pandemic began. However, with new infections having dropped sharply and vaccination having progressed rapidly, the government lifted the state of emergency at the end of September, and now seeks a new endemic equilibrium. Since the virus-related drag has been the main constraint on economic activity, and underlying momentum has remained solid, these moves likely will pave the way for a full-fledged recovery.

We believe there is room for a powerful surge in services consumption in particular. With the government’s extended policy supports, pandemic-related damage to labor income has been limited. This, together with constraints on consumption opportunities under the state of emergency, has led to the persistently elevated household savings, leaving households with high accumulated liquid savings. We think the upcoming easing of business restrictions and the removal of self-restraint requests will free up households’ pent-up demand funded out of excess savings amid the solid income environment. The full recovery in domestic consumption activity is likely to boost Japan’s economic growth in coming quarters. 

 

This podcast was recorded on October 15, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Jay Barry and Joe Lupton to discuss the recent rise in G-10 bond yields and inflation compensation measures. While the rise in inflation breakevens in the US and Europe is consistent with the reflation tilt built into our medium-term forecast, it also displays a whiff of stagflation as rising near-term inflation expectations are not accompanied by rising real yields. Our baseline forecast of growth resiliency anticipates nominal yields to move up further from here as real yields rise. Breakevens are expected to stabilize as inflation comes off the boil. While they would likely face downside pressure if growth materially disappointed, a key upside risk is the potential for a dovish Fed shift if Chair Powell is not reappointed. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Jay Barry

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on October 13, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3877092-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

New prime minister Kishida’s economic policy agenda refers to many areas, but focuses more on income redistribution to households than on Japan’s growth. We discuss how Japan needs resources before conducting income redistribution and expanding the middle class, and how reinforcing economic growth is the way to get these resources. Unless Kishida changes policy priorities, Japan is likely to return to sub-par growth after the tentative pent-up demand is used up. 

 

This podcast was recorded on October 12, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3882103-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3858691-0, and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3840641-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Bruce Kasman is joined by Natasha Kaneva, Joe Lupton, and Greg Fuzesi to assess the macroeconomic consequences of the recent surge in natural gas prices. Prices have soared to historic highs in response to a perfect storm of high demand and impediments to supply. With supplies already low and production struggling to keep pace with rapidly rising heating demands, the risks point to extremely tight markets and high prices for the months ahead. Natural gas is largely a regional affair. While the US is generally well supplied and Asia is first in line for LNG, Europe is the residual claimant and has seen the most stunning spikes in gas prices this year. Governments will subsidize consumers, but the risks to business margins and even factory operations in the face of energy constraints poses yet another threat to the recovery.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Natesha Kaneva

Joseph Lupton

Greg Fuzesi

This podcast was recorded on October 6, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3869150-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3871854-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Sajjid Chinoy and Sin Beng Ong discuss the implications of the region’s shift to an endemic equilibrium and its implication for monetary policy, with a focus on the upcoming RBI and MAS meetings.

This podcast was recorded on October 5, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3864472-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3876067-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3857972-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3812028-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nicolaie Alexandru and Jose Cerveira discuss the recent hike from Czech National Bank and outlook for policy rates of other central banks in the CEE region.

 

Speakers

Nicolaie Alexandru, Head of EMEA EM Economics

Jose Cerveira, Senior Economist for the CE3 region

 

This podcast was recorded on 1 October 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3876292-0,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3867304-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3875903-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Nora Szentivanyi and David Mackie discuss why the Delta wave has been more benign than expected and whether we are getting close to an endemic equilibrium.

 

This podcast was recorded on October 1, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3872999-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3866225-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3859107-0

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Although US real GDP is currently estimated to stand 2% above its pre-pandemic level, employment is still 3% from its pre-crisis norm. We discuss our latest research on US labor markets focusing on the roles that a shift in the composition of demand, pandemic-related supply shocks, and the recent removal of enhanced unemployment benefits play in impeding labor market healing.

 

Featured in this podcast:

Bruce Kasman

Jesse Edgerton

Joseph Lupton

Peter McCrory

 

This podcast was recorded on September 29, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3868316-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

 

Malcolm Barr discusses recent shifts in expectations about the Bank of England, and the recent hike in rates by the Norgesbank, with Allan Monks and Morten Lund.

 

 

This podcast was recorded on 27 September 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Downside risks for China have increased against the backdrop of a slowing in activity indicators and rising concern that recent regulatory policies will further weigh on growth. Although we believe that spillovers from rising credit stress will remain limited, the latest developments raise questions about the commitment and capability of policymakers to quickly boost growth. 

Any disappointment in China would have knock-on effects for global growth, but they are likely to prove modest in an environment in which cyclical momentum elsewhere remains strong and China’s policy shifts and credit overhangs are not indicative of broader global developments.

This podcast was recorded on September 22, 2021.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.